Trying to make sense of John McCain's presidential campaign is not for the faint of heart. First there's the money. Let's stop lamenting how difficult it has been for him to raise money. With little interest or focus on his part, on top of a self-confessed badly managed fundraising effort, he's raised plenty - almost $26 million. Even by 2008 standards, this is real money. What is incomprehensible is the combination of bad judgment, mismanagement and plain foolishness that allowed all that money to be spent, with little discernible to show for it, except for suggestions that his campaign is kaput.
John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign has been a gripping saga almost from day one, but not primarily because of money. And this saga of McCain in 2008 actually began with McCain circa 2000.
McCain didn't raise the most money back then either - not even close. He did not have the best organized campaign or the most well-regarded staff. Yet he won the New Hampshire primary and became the candidate to beat.
In 2000, especially in New Hampshire during the primary season, John McCain cut a romantic figure. A cross between John Wayne and the Lone Ranger, traveling through the snows of New Hampshire aboard his Straight Talk Express, this seemingly principled man spoke his mind, answered every question and was fearless.
He epitomized the maverick independent spirit and Western heroic character whom one meets only in movies.
He was so attractive to a country hungry for something more, something different, something refreshing that voters either choose to ignore or forgive him for his too conservative views, or his too liberal views, depending on which side of the fence the forgiveness needed to come from. Voters of all stripes fell in love with who they thought John McCain was. It wasn't just voters who fell in love, however. Many members of the media did as well.
So when McCain stepped back on the presidential campaign stage a few months ago, his admirers were expecting their romantic hero. Instead they found a candidacy riddled with contradictions and questions about duplicity or political opportunism or judgment. Voters and media alike were left with nostalgia for the old days, or worse, a sense of betrayal.
The coverage of his campaign has reflected this contradiction - deep affection for who they thought he was and deep disappointment in who he might have become, in an almost roller coaster swing of coverage.
There were glowing stories early, as McCain was preparing to get his act together and formally enter the race. Then in late April, the storyline changed. John McCain's campaign is in "meltdown," according to Newsweek magazine. E.J. Dionne declared that we are witnessing the John McCain "tragedy." Others opined about the "political death watch" surrounding McCain's candidacy, only partially fueled by his anemic fundraising totals.
Just as quickly as reports of his eminent demise appeared, they disappeared, and positive articles of him righting the ship, reorganizing, hiring new staff, getting back on the Straight Talk Express became the norm. The John McCain of 2000 was back, supposedly.
Soon enough, the storyline changed once again. Certainly his support for the surge and his fight for immigration reform have cost him support. But his visit to Iraq and his incomprehensible testimony of how safe he felt walking the streets in Iraq (while he was surrounded by an army of protectors) and his musical comedy attempt "Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb bomb Iran" (to the tune of "Barbara Anne") were quickly turned into fodder for late-night comedy, and his candidacy reached an all-time low.
Yet again he seemed to rally, or at least the coverage took on a much more favorable hue for a while. Now his roller coaster ride for president has hit bottom again, this time after another fundraising quarter that did not just raise less than expected, but essentially left his campaign broke.
John McCain is no stranger to making it through difficult times. And while he is having a rough ride right now, he is not totally deluding himself in thinking that this too will pass. Money is not and never has been the essence of John McCain.
While his floundering financially is no small matter and will surely result in further reports of his eminent demise, the central challenge for John McCain is not financial. Instead it is about character and whether or not he can convince voters that he still is that independent heroic figure, a leader of principles and conviction, who earned his moral authority from his service and his courage and his willingness to talk straight in 2000. And that, money can't buy.
(Sue Casey, a New Hampshire native and veteran of five presidential campaigns, lives and teaches in Denver. In 1987 she authored Hart and Soul: Gary Hart's New Hampshire Odyssey and Beyond.)
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