Hi! Capital Beat Swami here with a peek into the political future. Helping us out today is Bill Whalen, a research fellow at Stanford University who started playing Fantasy Primary 2008 while the rest of the country was still prying last year's campaign signs out of their front lawns. And from what he says, the next few years are going to be awfully fun.

"This is the most wide-open election in a long time," Whalen said. "That is assuming (Vice President Dick) Cheney doesn't run, which is a pretty safe bet."

Things on the Democratic side look pretty sewn up, at least if you put any stock in polls. Most number crunchers, pundits and Beltway gossips point to the liberal trinity of Hillary Clinton, John Kerry and John Edwards.

But look at the GOP and Whalen sees a field at least 14 candidates deep. Sure, the expected big names are there, like Sen. John McCain and Rudolph Giuliani. But plenty of lesser-known Republicans have been testing the primary waters lately, too -- including our neighbor to the south, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

"If he's not running, he's doing a pretty good imitation of it," Whalen said.

Sure, the land of gay marriage, taxes and the Kennedys might not be the easiest place for a Republican to call home ("George W. Bush did a very good job of hanging a 'kick me' sign on Massachusetts," Whalen pointed out.) But Romney might be able to use some of that as ammunition in a primary fight that would likely focus on domestic and social issues, not foreign policy.

"You're not going to see Republicans stand up and say, 'This war was a mistake,'" Whalen said. "But on the domestic front, I think it's wide open."

Romney is working hard to stop expanded stem cell research and gay marriage, and last week he started peddling a new death penalty bill. Romney is also a devout Mormon, although Whalen isn't sure how that might play with the conservative Christians who helped Bush win a second term.

"Somebody in some other campaign will throw his religion into it," Whalen said. "He will have to explain that he's Mormon, but it's not going to get in his way."

Of course, Romney -- like many 2008 maybes -- has to first survive a mid-term election. But, Whalen said, "if you have Romney re-elected, he's going to be on the news every day visiting New Hampshire."

Ouch

Speaking of 2008, House Minority Leader Jim Craig had some rather un-encouraging thoughts on Kerry's chances: "Honestly, I don't think anyone has thought much about him," Craig told the National Journal last week. "The feeling is, he had his shot, came close, but I don't think people would be inclined to do that again."

Parting ways

New Hampshire's congressional delegation may not have a hive mind after all. It's pretty well known that Reps. Charlie Bass and Jeb Bradley split votes on the federal energy bill two weeks ago, with Bass in favor and Bradley opposed.

But the two have found themselves on opposite sides of some other recent votes, too. Bradley supported a bill that would bar adults from transporting pregnant minors across state lines for an abortion. Bass voted against the measure. He also supported two amendments that would have granted exemptions to victims of

Single page