Maple syrup producers wish for warm days and cool nights. But most prefer that weather in March - not in January, when they have not yet drilled their taps.

Warm January weather, which averaged temperatures 8.6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, caused the sap to begin moving in the sugar maples. Some producers considered tapping their trees more than a month early. The weather may have caused them to loose the best sap of the season.

While most chalk up the warm spell to Mother Nature's fickleness, at least a few say they wonder about the future of the industry, given climate change projections.

When weather patterns are unusual, tapping becomes a "fish or cut bait" process, said Tim Fleury, a forest resources educator with the University of New Hampshire Cooperative Extension in Merrimack County.

Early sap is lighter and is used to make the more expensive Grade A syrup. Because tap holes will close about six weeks after drilling, Fleury said, producers had a choice: Tap early to catch the first runs and risk missing out on the bulk of sap collection later in the season. Or, wait for the more reliable sap-producing weather in March and miss the first runs. Fleury said tapping more than once a season could result in long-term damage to the tree.

The producers interviewed yesterday had not tapped their trees, but many passed along tales of producers in Vermont and Massachusetts drilling early. Others said they considered it.

"I've sort of been kicking myself, saying I don't know if I should have tapped or not," said Howard Pearl of Pearl and Sons Farm in Loudon.

With a cold snap in the forecast, Pearl said he's glad he didn't. Meteorologist John Cannon of the National Weather Service in Gray, Maine, said some of the air that has pummeled eastern Europe with record cold temperatures will make its way to New England with slightly less ferocity next week. That could slow down the sap and make the regular season a good one, Pearl said.

Barry Rock's long-term projections for the maple industry in New Hampshire are less optimistic than Pearl's short-term ones. Rock is a professor of natural resources at the University of New Hampshire. Rock said New England warmed by 2 degrees Fahrenheit in the 20th century and average winter temperatures rose 4 degrees.

A 2001 report assessing the effect of potential climate change in New England, of which Rock was a co-author and editor, showed that between 1920 and 1960 the United States produced 80 percent of the world's maple syrup, most of which came from New York and New England. Canada produced the other 20 percent.

Now, those percentages have reversed. About a third of that change can be attributed to climate change, Rock said. Demographic changes are also factors.

An unpredictable tapping season makes it difficult for farmers to get optimum collection, particularly of the lighter syrup, he said. Plus, trees need prolonged periods of cold to convert their starches to sugar and produce sweet sap, he said.

Rock said the warming trend will continue because of human-induced global warming. In 100 years, he said, average New England temperatures will be between 6 and 10 degrees warmer. With 6 degrees of change, New England would feel the way Richmond, Va. does now, Rock said. With 10 degrees, this climate would be like Atlanta's.

"You know that they don't do a lot of tapping of maple trees in Richmond or Atlanta," Rock said.

Dean Wilber of Maple Lane Products in Concord said he's concerned about global warming in the long-term, but he's not ready to paint a doomsday picture just yet. He said the 200 additional sugar maples he planted on his Oak Hill farm about 20 years ago will be ready to produce soon and will last him awhile. He thinks this season could turn out okay.

"It's not so much what the winter has been; it's what the weather is when the sap is flowing," he said. "If it comes tap time and the weather is the way it should be, it could be a regular, normal season."

Single page