Public confidence in Republican governance has plunged to the lowest levels of the Bush presidency, with Americans saying they now trust Democrats by wide margins to deal with Iraq, the economy, immigration and other issues, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll that underscores the GOP's fragile grip on power six months before the midterm elections.
Dissatisfaction with the administration's policies in Iraq has overwhelmed other issues as the source of President Bush's and the Republican's problems. The survey suggests that a pessimistic mood about the direction of the country - 69 percent said the nation is now off track - and disaffection with Republicans has dramatically improved the chances of Democrats to win gains in November.
Democrats are now favored to handle all 10 issues measured in the Post-ABC News poll. The survey also shows a clear majority of the public, 56 percent, saying they would prefer to see Democrats in control of Congress after the November elections. Only a third want the GOP to remain in the majority. Nearly three times as many Americans say they will use the elections to express opposition to the president (30 percent) than to show support for him (12 percent).
The poll offers two clear cautions for the Democrats. One is a growing disaffection with incumbents generally. When asked whether they were inclined to reelect their current representative in the Congress or look around for someone new, 55 percent said they were open to someone else, the highest since just before Republicans captured control of Congress in 1994. That suggests that some Democratic incumbents could feel the voters'wrath, although as the party in power Republicans have more at risk.
The second warning for Democrats is that their improved prospects for November appear driven primarily by dissatisfaction with Republicans rather than by positive impressions of their own party. Congressional Democrats are rating only slightly more favorably than congressional Republicans, and 52 percent of those surveyed said the Democrats have not offered a clear contrast to Bush and the Republicans.
Based on the public mood, the midterm elections are likely to be a referendum on the president and his party. The poll suggests that, if Republicans can turn the election into a choice between the two parties, as they are attempting to do, they could frustrate Democratic hopes of capturing control of one or both houses of Congress. Some Democratic leaders already are warning against overconfidence, given how quickly conditions could change by November.
Bush's job approval rating now stands at 33 percent, down five percentage points in barely a month and a new low in Post-ABC polls. His current standing with the public is identical to his father's worst showing in the Post-ABC poll before he lost his reelection bid to Bill Clinton in 1992. Bush's father fell below 30 percent in some other independent polls in 1992.
The president's current decline has been particularly steep among Republicans, who until last month had generally remained generally loyal as independents and Democrats grew increasingly critical. According to the survey, Bush's disapproval rating among Republicans has nearly doubled, from 16 percent to 30 percent, in the past month while his approval rating dipped below 70 percent for the first time. Nearly nine in 10 Democrats and seven in 10 independents currently do not like the job Bush is doing as president.
Public dissatisfaction with Bush has grown in lockstep with opposition to the conflict in Iraq. Not quite a third - 32 percent - said they approve of the way Bush is handling Iraq, down five points in the past month and a new low in Post-ABC polling. About a third say Iraq has been worth the cost, the lowest level of support recorded in Post-ABC polls. Two in three Americans believe the war has not been worth it, a view shared by eight in 10 Democrats, seven in 10 independents and a third of all Republicans.
The clearest sign of how Iraq dominates the public mood came in answer to another question, which asked those who disapprove of Bush's performance to cite a reason. Nearly half, 46 percent, said Iraq, easily the most frequently mentioned reason. In equal proportions, Republicans as well as Democrats who disapprove of Bush cite his performance in Iraq as the principal reason.
The findings buttress comments Monday by White House Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove, who said Iraq "looms over everything,"although he said he remains confident about Republican prospects in November.
Bush's fading popularity is matched by waning popular support for the Republican-held Congress. A third of the country approves of the job Congress is doing - identical to the president's poor job performance rating - and a 10-year low. Even Republicans are divided over the performance of the Republican-controlled Congress: 49 percent currently approved while 47 disapproved, a view shared by seven in 10 Democrats and political independents.
The survey suggests dissatisfaction with Congress extends to members of both parties. Only 39 percent approve of the job Democrats in Congress are doing, while 58 percent disapprove - slightly higher than the level of disapproval registered before the 1994 midterm elections, when Republicans evicted Democrats from power on Capitol Hill.
On one other measure, incumbents look slightly less threatened. More than three in five, 62 percent, said they approve of the way their own representative is doing his or her job, up from 59 percent last month. At this point in 1994, an equal percentage gave good ratings to their representatives, but by October that number had plunged to 49 percent.
A total of 1,103 randomly selected adults were interviewed by telephone May 11-15. Margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
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