With the election less than two months away, Democratic congressional candidates Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter are lagging far behind the Republican incumbents they hope to unseat, according to a new Monitor poll.

Democratic leaders say they sense a shift in the country's political landscape, and hope voters dissatisfied with Washington will sweep Democrats to victory, changing the balance of power in Congress. But in New Hampshire, such a transformation has yet to occur. The poll suggests that U.S. Reps. Jeb Bradley and Charlie Bass are in a strong position to be reelected.

Bradley led Shea-Porter 56 to 31 percent, according to a Monitor poll of 300 likely voters in the First Congressional District (with a 6 percent margin of error). In a poll of 300 likely Second District voters, Bass, a six-term incumbent, led Hodes 55 to 30 percent. Libertarian Ken Blevens was supported by 1 percent of the vote.

"Anything short of self-destruction, it's going to be very tough to beat them," said Del Ali, president of Research 2000, the Maryland-based nonpartisan polling firm that conducted the poll for the Monitor last Wednesday and Thursday.

But at the state level, it's a mixed bag for Republicans.

Democratic Gov. John Lynch held a huge lead over Rep. Jim Coburn of Windham, the Republican nominee for governor. Lynch was favored 61 percent to Coburn's 24 percent in the poll, with 15 percent undecided.

Lynch's support has surged in two years and transcends party lines: Nearly three-quarters of independents and 21 percent of Republicans endorsed Lynch in the poll.

"I guess John Lynch is God now," Ali said. "Wow." Two years ago, 39 percent of voters gave Lynch high marks, according to a Research 2000 poll. Today, that figure is 63 percent.

Research 2000 used randomly generated telephone numbers to interview 600 likely voters. Those interviewed - 180 Democrats (30 percent), 192 Republicans (32 percent) and 228 voters who identified themselves as independents (38 percent) - reflect voter registration numbers statewide. The interviews were divided evenly between the two congressional districts, and they included 294 men and 306 women.

Voters interviewed at random Friday voiced a common refrain. "I don't know much about Coburn at all," said Mike D'Angelo of Northfield. "Lynch seems to be doing a good job."

Not to say that Lynch doesn't have his detractors. To Brooks Tanner - a self-described "strict Republican" who has "no clue"about Coburn - Lynch's ratings reflect what he called the governor's unwillingness to take unpopular positions. "Lynch, he's done an amazing job of keeping a low profile, and keeping a low profile makes someone electable," said Tanner, of Manchester.

What Tanner calls a low profile, Democratic officials refer to as bipartisanship. "He's a consensus-builder," said Nick Clemons, executive director of the state Democratic Party. "He's not driven by ideology. . . . After the spell we've had dealing with the Republican Congress and the Bush administration, people find that refreshing."

Republican leaders concede that Coburn faces a challenge, but they hope that undecided voters break his way. "Jim would be the first to recognize that he's got quite a hill to climb," said Wayne Semprini, chairman of the state Republican Party. But "he's a very hard-working guy, and I would not take him lightly."

If Shea-Porter and Hodes have anything in common with Coburn, it's a lack of name recognition, according to the poll. Nearly three-quarters of voters have no opinion of Shea-Porter; for Hodes, that figure is 64 percent. In contrast, more than half of voters gave Bradley and Bass high marks; less than one-quarter of voters deemed their performances unfavorable.

"I knew that she was running, but it didn't sound like she had a strong enough political base,"Weare resident Ali Yates said of Shea-Porter, who upset Jim Craig in last week's First District primary.

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