Citing new polls that show Democratic challenger Paul Hodes running a tight race with U.S. Rep. Charlie Bass, political analysts in New Hampshire and Washington now regard the race as a toss-up. That's a dramatic shift from the summer, when observers considered it to be on the periphery of races to watch.

The tightening coincides with a wave of spending by the candidates and national party organizations. Republicans and Democratic groups in Washington have each spent several hundred thousand dollars to flood the airwaves in the 2nd Congressional District - from local radio and cable TV to Boston network spots.

The Evans-Novak Political Report, edited by the conservative commentator Robert Novak, last week labeled the race a toss-up that "leans Democratic." This week, the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan online newsletter, placed the race somewhere between "lean(s) Republican" and "toss-up."

Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, said he considers Bass to be the favorite but sees the possibility for a Hodes victory - a dramatic shift from viewing it as a likely win for Bass, a sixth-term congressman who also faced Hodes in 2004 and won by 20 percentage points.

"Literally a month ago, this was not a possibility. Nobody mentioned this race, nobody saw it - either party - as at all likely," Sabato said yesterday. "It's a district now that we are all going to watch."

A poll released in late September by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center showed Bass with a 10-point lead (46 percent to 36 percent) over Hodes, with a substantial bloc of voters undecided. It also showed that 48 percent of likely voters had a favorable opinion of Bass - a red flag for an incumbent, said Andy Smith, director of the UNH survey center.

The next UNH poll numbers will be released tomorrow. "I think it's going to be real close," Smith said. "I think it's the most serious trouble that (Bass has) been in since he's been elected. This is going to be certainly his toughest race."

An Oct. 24-26 poll of 988 respondents conducted by a group called Majority Watch called the race a tie, with a three-point lead for Hodes and a three-point margin of error. That poll was conducted jointly by two firms, one of which is nonpartisan and one of which does work for both parties.

The last three independent polls - that one, the UNH poll and a recent American Research Group poll - show Bass with an average of 47 percent of the vote, said Dante Scala, a political scientist at St. Anselm College.

"That is exactly how well George Bush did two years ago in the 2nd District," Scala said. Although voters in that district supported Bass in 2004, 52 percent voted for Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry, 47 percent voted for Bush, and 1 percent voted otherwise.

Scala said the latest numbers suggest voters in the district "are thinking nationally and not locally. If that's true, Charlie Bass is in a lot of trouble."

In his political report, Novak called the 2nd District "a surprise. No one expected (Bass) to fall behind late in the game, but that's where he is. Bass appears to have been caught off his guard."

Novak, who predicted the Democrats would gain 21 seats in the U.S. House next week and win the majority, cited Hodes's strong fundraising numbers and Bass's "lackadaisical" campaign.

"Bass's get-out-the-vote effort is extremely disorganized," Novak wrote. "He is also upsetting his base with ads that brought his pro-abortion stance into the race and that distance himself from the Republican Party."

Both campaigns have responded to the polls, political rankings and national cash infusions in reserved fashion while focusing on the last days of the race.

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