Democratic congressional candidate Paul Hodes has made sizeable gains against Republican incumbent Charlie Bass, coming from 25 points behind to transform the race into a toss-up, according to a new Monitor poll. The tightening campaign represents a nationwide shift, as the upcoming midterm elections increasingly become a referendum on President Bush, political analysts said.

"The Republican Party is in a free-fall," said Wayne Lesperance, an associate professor of political science at New England College. "This is unprecedented movement. . . . The death toll in Iraq, the Foley scandal: All of these perfect storm of things to help Democrats have happened."

Heading into Tuesday's election, Bass leads Hodes 47 to 46 percent, with 2 percent of the vote going to Libertarian Ken Blevens, according to a Monitor poll of 300 likely voters in the Second Congressional District, with a 6 percent margin of error. In the poll of 300 First District voters, U.S. Rep Jeb Bradley leads Democratic candidate Carol Shea-Porter 48 to 40 percent, with 12 percent undecided. In September, a Monitor poll put both Hodes and Shea-Porter 25 points behind their opponents.

The poll also shows Democratic Gov. John Lynch leading Republican challenger Jim Coburn 67 to 26 percent; one-third of Republicans said they would vote for Lynch.

The Democratic turnaround says less about Hodes and Shea-Porter than it does about the Bush administration, political analysts said. Both Democratic candidates have attempted to connect their opponents to Bush, accusing them of voting in lockstep with the party establishment.

"This is one of those elections where it is truly a referendum on incumbency: not just the two Republicans who are running, but their president and the incumbent Republican Party in Washington," said Joe Keefe, a former Democratic congressional candidate in the First District. "This race has mostly been about them."

Which isn't to say that Hodes and Shea-Porter have sat on the sidelines. Hodes has been bolstered by an infusion of cash from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which recently pumped $1.1 million into the race, prompting a flood of TV advertising. The big money and his debate performance show that "Hodes has succeeded in presenting himself as a credible alternative," said Dante Scala, a political scientist at St. Anselm College. "In this environment, that may be all a Democrat needs to do."

"This is exactly where we want to be heading into the last weekend," said Reid Cherlin, spokesman for the Hodes campaign.

Several political analysts interviewed for this article predicted a Hodes victory; most had Bradley eking out a win. Polls "have shown Jeb in a very comfortable position," said Debora Vanderbeek," Bradley's spokeswoman. But "we won't take anything for granted."

"Republicans will have to regroup on Nov. 8, and they're going to have to make some hard decisions that they haven't had to make in decades," said Mike Dennehy, a Republican strategist and senior adviser to Sen. John McCain. "I think this will be one of the worst elections in recent memory."

But Republican strategists also expressed frustration with the national tenor of the congressional races. A congressman's record ought to be measured in local issues, not the anti-establishment sentiment sweeping the country, they said.

GOP consultant Dave Carney criticized Hodes for what he characterized as a reliance on partisan jabs, rather than substantive policy positions. "I think the Democrats missed the boat by only being critical and not having an alternative," said Carney, who thinks Bass and Bradley will both prevail Tuesday. "There are things like the environment, tax policy. There are a lot of things that drive people much more in our district than Iraq."

"Bass has been the epitome of a congressman who represents his district, more than any other congressman in the history of New Hampshire," Dennehy said. "It's not right that the wave of unhappiness with President Bush is affecting him."

Voters interviewed at random Friday expressed disappointment with the Bush administration and fatigue towards the years-long conflict in Iraq. "I've been a lifelong Republican, but I'm definitely disappointed in the Republican Party," said Gordon McGlothlen of Concord. "I don't like huge deficits, and I do think it's time to get out of Iraq." As for the congressional election: "What's the lesser of two evils? That's basically what you're down to," McGlothlen added.

Support for the war in Iraq has continued to decline. In December 2003, 79 percent of Granite State voters deemed Bush's handling of the post-war occupation in Iraq excellent or good. Today, that figure is 34 percent, according to the poll. Less than one-third of voters think the war in Iraq was worth the effort.

Single page