The last time he ran in the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary, Sen. John McCain was defined as much by attitude as by any particular policy positions. But the intervening years have turned the "maverick" of 2000 into the "frontrunner" of 2008 - a transformation that carries advantages as well as challenges, according to political observers and McCain supporters.
"If you worked for (McCain) in 2000, you were basically sticking your middle finger to the Republican establishment, and it was a personal choice," said Dave Carney, a longtime GOP consultant in Hancock who has never worked for McCain. "Now, he is the establishment."
McCain hasn't formally announced his intentions to run for president, but he's hired staff in New Hampshire and other early-voting states. As a candidate, will likely enter the 2008 primary with the confidence of a veteran. He won the state in 2000 convincingly - 49 percent to George Bush's 30 percent - and has kept much of the staff for his next campaign. McCain's supporters say they expect to run a more polished, better-funded campaign this time, but that too could pose some challenges.
"It was a kind of rebel outfit in 2000," said Walter Peterson, a former New Hampshire governor who was McCain's honorary state chairman. "Now, he has to be careful to keep the image of freshness, of excitement, but also realize that he's running a marathon this time. . . . He's one of the leading candidates from the start, whereas last time he caught them all asleep."
Peterson and others pointed out that to be successful in another presidential run, McCain will have to forge ties to many of the conservative groups that spurned him in 2000. McCain has already moved in that direction - speaking last year, for example at the Rev. Jerry Falwell's Liberty University. But overtures like that to the GOP's conservative wing could cost McCain the trust of the legions of independent voters who flocked to his support in the New Hampshire primary.
Many of those independents were attracted by McCain's image as a plucky outsider with little money in the bank and no big-name supporters. If he runs for president in 2008, he'll run as one of the most well-known figures in politics, with prominent fundraisers and GOP heavyweights lining up to join him. In 2000, McCain made his name through a grueling schedule of town meetings across New Hampshire, where early on he lured listeners with free ice cream and a "good" crowd meant 20 people. At campaign stops this time around, reporters alone will likely number in the dozens.
That style helped McCain stand out in his first presidential run, and his advisers say he hasn't altered that philosophy - it's just that he's much better known now than in 2000.
And his fame will allow McCain to run a much broader campaign this time than in 2000. That year, his advisers gambled on New Hampshire, devoting nearly all of their time and energy to the early primary state, with the hopes that a win here would vault them to the nomination. And though McCain won the state's primary, the better-financed, more conservative Bush won the nomination.
Sarah Crawford, McCain's deputy political director for New England, said the 2008 campaign's New Hampshire strategy will be similar to that used in 2000, with an emphasis on energetic door-to-door canvassing by volunteers and tapping support from across the state's Republican spectrum. But the candidate himself will be a far less frequent visitor.
"He'll still have to compete vigorously, but it's unlikely he'll have to do the same thing he did in New Hampshire as 2000," said former senator Warren Rudman, a longtime friend and adviser to McCain. "He doesn't have the same needs, in terms of name recognition especially."
And McCain's celebrity status may make it difficult for him to replicate the strategy he employed in 2000, where dozens of "town hall" meetings, open to the public, offered voters the chance to see him in an unscripted, casual environment over the course of months.
McCain staffers say they hope to use that same format, but they don't expect the same steady build in momentum that fueled the McCain buzz seven years ago.
"We know the importance of small, intimate events, and meeting people several times in New Hampshire before they make up their minds," Crawford said. "I think that will be a challenge this time. For the past seven years, with (McCain) being on the Today Show every morning, it'll be hard to not have a huge media pack surrounding him everywhere he goes. It will be our goal to keep some of the events small, like the first time around."
Despite McCain's previous success in New Hampshire, one significant difference from 2000 is the presence of a candidate from Massachusetts in the 2008 race: former governor Mitt Romney. Massachusetts candidates have strong track records in theprimary.
"New Hampshire voters looked at McCain in (2000) and said he's the best, but I don't think they'll make the same choice automatically this time," said Alicia Preston, spokeswoman for former New York governor George Pataki, another possible presidential candidate. "Many people will look at him as he fits into the field this time."
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