If a primary is held and no one shows up, does it still matter? Specifically, now that most Democratic presidential candidates have opted to skip Michigan's primary, does its date still matter to New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner?
In short, yes. Gardner, who has kept mum so far on when he will set New Hampshire's primary, says Michigan's Jan. 15 date triggers the state law that requires New Hampshire's primary to be one week ahead of any other.
"If there's a Republican primary in Michigan, it's a similar event," Gardner said. That means that, under present circumstances, the latest possible date for the primary is Jan. 8, he said.
On Tuesday, the deadline for withdrawing from Michigan's primary, Democratic presidential candidates Sen. Barack Obama, former senator John Edwards, Sen. Joe Biden and Gov. Bill Richardson announced that they would skip the contest. Rep. Dennis Kucinich also tried to withdraw but filed incorrect paperwork, according to the Associated Press.
That leaves Kucinich, Sen. Chris Dodd and Sen. Hillary Clinton - whose domination in the polls likely prompted other candidates to drop out - on the ballot in January.
Democratic presidential candidates have already signed a pledge not to campaign in any state that attempts to budge in front of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. This just sealed the deal, making Michigan's primary irrelevant, New Hampshire Democrats said.
"I forget who called it a glorified beauty contest, but I think it's perfect," said Pia Carusone, spokeswoman for the New Hampshire Democratic Party.
Meanwhile, leading Michigan Democrats - a few of whom have been pushing to unseat New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary for nearly a generation - were furious. Michigan Republicans rejoiced, saying the move would make the state more competitive for the GOP.
"Far be it for me to disturb my opponents when they're busy shooting themselves in the foot," Michigan Republican Party Spokesman Bill Nowling said.
Nowling said Republicans would take every opportunity to remind the state's independent voters that Democrats were bypassing the state. "We're lapping it up," he said.
On the same day that leading Democrats were making news by dropping out of the race, Republican presidential candidates were in the state for a debate that often touched on Michigan's economic situation, Nowling said.
This year, states across the nation have pushed up their primaries closer to the starting line. About 20 states have set primaries or caucuses for Feb. 5, dubbed Super-Duper-Tuesday or Tsunami Tuesday. Some states have pushed further, edging into January. Wyoming Republicans set a convention for Jan. 5, the Michigan legislature approved a Jan. 15 date, and Florida set its primary for Jan. 29.
But escalating ire about primary dates has so far been exclusive to the Democratic side, which has had years of meetings and fights about the calendar, threats for scofflaw states from the party, the candidates' pledge of allegiance to early states and, most recently, the withdrawal of most candidates from Michigan's ballot.
To Kathy Sullivan, the troubles on the Democratic side all flow from Michigan officials. It was Michigan Sen. Carl Levin who led the charge for a committee to rewrite the primary calendar on the grounds that New Hampshire and Iowa were not diverse enough. That committee's work - which Gardner never said he would accept - advanced South Carolina and Nevada in the schedule.
Sullivan, a former state party chairwoman who represented New Hampshire on the committee, sees Levin's late push to move up Michigan's primary date as proof that his motive was more about advancing his own state.
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