The presidential candidates are no longer running a race without a finish line in New Hampshire. But it is the state's voters who must now sharpen their focus on the country's future and on who is best suited to lead the way into that future.
The presidential primary will be Jan. 8. That is six weeks and a day from now. Because of Christmas and New Year's, the campaign's critical phase will coincide with one of the busiest times of the year. In past primary campaigns, voters had the luxury of waiting until after the first of the year to get serious about their decision. Not this time.
Of course, the candidates have been traveling the state for votes for months. In spite of efforts by the parties and other states to diminish New Hampshire's role, most candidates still whisper sweet nothings in our ear. Most are honoring the traditions of retail politics. They shake voters' hands, look them in the eye, answer their questions.
The national media and other professional campaign followers, meanwhile, have been watching the public-opinion polls and tracking the most minute shifts in the candidates' positions. During umpteen televised debates, they have placed the candidates they perceive as minor on the wings, giving them little airtime and few serious questions. The media covet - and, to a large extent, have usurped - the traditional New Hampshire role of winnowing the field.
But if the past tells us anything, it is this:
In the last weeks of the race, a great number of voters for whom the presidential campaign has to now been background buzz will pay close attention. People who thought they liked Rudy Giuliani or Mike Huckabee or John Edwards or Bill Richardson will have second thoughts. Independents who weren't even sure which party's primary they were going to vote in will show up at events, check out campaign websites and do their best to match a candidate's views and persona with the ideal leader they have in mind.
For the candidates, the late-engaging electorate presents the ultimate challenge. It means that whatever support they have won through good organization and hard campaigning can evaporate in an instant, as it did for Howard Dean four years ago. It means voters may coalesce around a candidate in the final days, either identifying a future president (Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton) or wounding an establishment choice (Walter Mondale, George W. Bush).
Sure, television advertising can influence the results, but it's never decisive. When the campaign is retail and the voters engage, slick images will not save a candidate who takes the electorate for granted.
In just 43 days, New Hampshire will give the nation a better idea about how race, gender and religion will play in the presidential election of 2008. Our state will help decide whether a candidate written off by the national media moves forward.
We will make the first direct vote on how the country should proceed across the divide between war and peace.
The frantic days of shopping for Christmas presents are in full swing. It is time for serious candidate-shopping, too.