The three most appealing things about Mike Huckabee are a self-effacing sense of humor, a pragmatic view of government and an impulse to depolarize politics. In other words, he can laugh at himself, and he thinks the public would prefer that leaders solve problems rather than play gotcha with the other party.
And here's a fourth appealing quality: Huckabee is a communicator. He speaks clearly, confidently and knowledgeably, and he exudes optimism.
At the moment, Huckabee is enjoying a bubble of interest among voters. Maybe the bubble will pop, as so many have over the years, but maybe not. Huckabee has earned the attention the old-fashioned way - not with big money, organization or celebrity but through on-the-ground campaigning. He's been good on the stump and worked his way toward center stage in the televised debates. He's also risen in the polls, especially in Iowa.
When Huckabee spoke to the Greater Concord Chamber of Commerce Friday, 15 video cameras were trained on him, and Anderson Cooper stood listening in the wings. But the main measure of Huckabee's possible seriousness as a candidate is the other Republican candidates' sudden interest in him.
Fred Thompson was first. During the YouTube debate last week, he ran a clip of Huckabee saying he could live with either an income or a sales tax increase. Of course, governors actually have to balance their states' budgets, so in a state with those taxes, it is no surprise that a governor would support raising them. As governor of California, Ronald Reagan was just such a taxer.
Then Mitt Romney's campaign weighed in with an e-mail aggregating criticisms of Huckabee from Arkansas, where he was governor for 11 years. The highlights included Phyllis Schlafly's assertion that Huckabee "destroyed the conservative movement in Arkansas" and a critic's characterization of Huckabee as "a treacherous liberal on taxes, social welfare spending and illegal immigration."
"He was pro-life and pro-gun but otherwise a liberal," Betsy Hagan of the Eagle Forum told the Wall Street Journal. "Just like Bill Clinton, he will charm you, but don't be surprised if he takes a completely different turn in office."
No doubt, when Huckabee's apparent apostasy from the Republican bible spreads, ideological Republicans will quail.
But for someone seeking the presidency, there are worse people to be compared to than Bill Clinton. After all, Clinton won the White House by ditching once and for all Democratic loyalty to the New Deal and capturing the center of the electorate.
Huckabee has a hard road to that goal, and not just because he'll struggle to earn the money to compete.
The real target of Romney's exposé is the Iowa electorate. He wants to dislodge Huckabee from the large base of evangelical voters there. A Nov. 18 ABC-Washington Post poll broke down this way: Romney 28, Huckabee 24, Fred Thompson 15, Rudy Giuliani 13. This gave Huckabee reason to hope he might actually win the state.
Even if he gets a good bump out of Iowa, New Hampshire will be iffy at best for him. The evangelical base is much smaller here than in Iowa. To now, many evangelical voters have no doubt written Huckabee off as unelectable and shopped the field.
The other New Hampshire problem for Huckabee is that polls show a high probability that undeclared voters will vote in the Democratic rather than the Republican primary. Huckabee needs Independents to have any chance of repeating the John McCain miracle win of 2000. Also, McCain caught George W. Bush sleeping that year; Romney's people in particular remember this history well.
Huckabee's best shot, of course, is just to keep being himself and meeting as many voters as possible.
If he schedules town meetings during the next several weeks, he'll be surprised at the crowds he'll draw.
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