Heading into the final weekend of the campaign, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama continues to lead Republican John McCain in New Hampshire, according to a Concord Monitor poll. The race is not over, however, because of the number of voters saying they may change their mind.

As he did 11 days ago, Obama leads by 7 points among likely voters asked whom they expect to vote for in Tuesday's election. With Obama at 51 percent and McCain at 44 percent, each candidate has gained 1 point since the last poll.

Those expressing a preference were asked if their choice was firm or whether they could still change their mind. In all, about 48 percent of those surveyed said they were firmly behind Obama and about 43 percent said they were firmly behind McCain. With the rest of those surveyed either leaning toward another candidate or unsure of their preference, the poll suggests Tuesday's outcome remains in doubt.

In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Republican John Sununu continues to trail former Democratic governor Jeanne Shaheen in their rematch of the 2002 election. Again, though, enough voters said their minds are not made up to cast doubt on the outcome. In addition, almost all the interviews for this poll were conducted before last night’s televised debate between these candidates.

Overall, the poll found, Shaheen leads Sununu, 52 percent to 42 percent, with Libertarian Ken Blevens at 2 percent. About 48 percent of those surveyed said they were firmly behind Shaheen, up from 43 percent in the last poll. About 39 percent said they were firmly behind Sununu, the same percentage as in the last poll.

The race that appears to have solidified the most since the last poll is the U.S. House race in the 2nd District, where incumbent Democrat Paul Hodes is the choice of 55 percent of likely voters, Republican Jennifer Horn is at 38 percent and Libertarian Chester Lapointe is at 3 percent. More telling, perhaps, 49 percent of those surveyed said Hodes is their firm choice, up from 36 percent in the last poll. Horn’s firm support stands at 35 percent, up from 29 percent in the last poll.

In the 1st District, incumbent Democrat Carol Shea-Porter leads former Republican congressman Jeb Bradley, 49 percent to 42 percent, with Libertarian Robert Kingsbury at 2 percent. Of note, about 20 percent of 1st District voters are not firmly behind either major-party candidate; Shea-Porter’s edge among firm voters is 43-37, up from 36-34 in the last poll.

The governor’s race looks much as it has throughout the campaign. Incumbent Democrat John Lynch leads Republican Joe Kenney, 64 percent to 32 percent, with Libertarian Susan Newell at 2 percent.

Look for more details from the poll in tomorrow’s Concord Monitor.

Methodology
The poll was conducted for the Monitor by Research 2000 of Rockville, Md., from Oct. 28-30. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone. Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

SAMPLE:
Men 288 (48%)
Women 312 (52%)
Democrats 186 (31%)
Republicans 180 (30%)
Independents/Other 234 (39%)
District 1 300 interviews
District 2 300 interviews
The margin of error for the congressional races is plus or minus 6 points.