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Predictions from campaign vets
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November 02, 2008 - 12:00 am

It's all over but the voting. Which means it's anything but over. What I can give you, readers, are predictions.

Democratic Party Chairman Ray Buckley was laughing out loud on Friday, talking about his party's celebration on Tuesday. His Republican counterpart Fergus Cullen sounded a bit grimmer.

"I think that we will have more Republicans elected after the election on Tuesday than we will have going in," Cullen said. That may sound like a low bar for a party that, until two years ago, controlled the Legislature, the Executive Council and both seats in Congress and lost it all in 2006.

For his part, Buckley threw a little cold water on the polls that have had Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama leading Republican John McCain by as many as 18 points last week.

"Not even in my wildest tsunami fantasies do I have Sen. Obama carrying New Hampshire by 20 points," Buckley said. "My brain's not even able to process something of that magnitude. . . . I'm assuming that it will be within the single digits."

Buckley sees Obama joined in the winner's circle by U.S. Senate candidate Jeanne Shaheen, U.S. Reps. Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes and Gov. John Lynch. And he goes out of his way to mention Executive Councilor John Shea, bringing the balance of the Executive Council with him.

"We haven't won a U.S. Senate race since 1975, and I know how difficult this race is going to be," Buckley said. "But I don't have any evidence at all that governor Shaheen is not going to be successful in her race."

Cullen calls the presidential race a narrow win for McCain, declines to comment on the gubernatorial race and predicts that Dan St. Hilaire will swing the Executive Council to the GOP. On the Senate race, he sounds a personal note.

"I believe, I am impassioned about believing, that John Sununu has earned re-election," Cullen said. "I think objectively in all of the debates it has been no contest. Jeanne Shaheen has bet the farm on running against George Bush.

"I have trust and faith in the voters of New Hampshire that they will reach the same conclusion that I have," Cullen said.

Pressed on the points, Sununu calls it Sununu by two, 49-47, with three points of scatter.

Cullen grants a victory to Republican congressional candidate Jeb Bradley in the 1st District and foresees that Jennifer Horn will "exceed expectations" in the 2nd.

Perhaps the most surprising prediction came from Tom Rath's crystal ball, who had Obama winning by "mid-single digits" in New Hampshire, and nationally, the Democrat will "probably break 300 electoral votes."

Rath looks past the polls to give Sununu a "narrow victory" in the Senate race over Shaheen. He also predicts Bradley will reclaim his old seat in the 1st congressional district. As for Hodes, he'll win "relatively easily," but Horn will win "rookie of the year."

Former Democratic chairwoman Kathy Sullivan had Democrats sweeping the five big races (president, governor, Senate and both House seats), all narrowly except for Lynch. She sees the Democrats holding the state House and Senate, and in the Senate she's watching three Democratic challenges to incumbents: the Jay Phinizy-Bob Odell contest in District 8, Bob Backus's rematch with Ted Gatsas in the Manchester area and Martha McLeod taking on John Gallus up north.



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