Third terms are rarely charmed.

Seeking one in 1972, Republican Gov. Walter Peterson ran into New Hampshire's political third rail - tax policy - and lost in a primary. Mel Thomson, the man who beat Peterson, apparently wore out his welcome in Concord during his third term and lost his quest for a fourth. On her way to her third term in 2000, Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen beat back a primary challenge and a tough general election opponent to clinch the narrowest victory of her career.

There's an aphorism that sums up what happens to a politician who's been in charge in Concord for that long: "Friends come and go, enemies accumulate," said Donna Sytek, the former speaker of the House.

Or, as Peterson puts it: "You do accumulate people who kind of wonder about you."

Especially compared with his predecessors, Gov. John Lynch's political life to date has been smooth sailing. After a narrow win in 2004, the centrist Democrat quickly won over a divided state: In 2005, his approval ratings climbed above 70 percent, and according to the University of New Hampshire's Granite State Poll, they haven't dipped under that stratospheric mark since. He's steered clear of partisan fights, often declining to state a position on a bill until it reaches his desk, and managed to keep friendly ties with lawmakers in both parties.

But this year, Lynch, 56, a former businessman from Hopkinton, faces challenges most of his predecessors never did.

As the national recession grows, the state budget is in a crisis that Lynch called "unprecedented" in his inaugural address last week, a problem that filled his speech and will probably consume his year. Lawmakers, he warned, will have to make a lot of unpopular cuts and defer a lot of dreams.

There are other unique budget woes brought on by the economy's sink. The long-underfunded retirement system has spiraled downward with the markets. Enrollment in entitlement programs like Medicaid tends to grow during recessions. Meanwhile, long-since signed contracts with state employees are coming due, 5.5 percent pay raise and all.

By simple dint of their tenure, third-term governors tend to see rough patches, said Dante Scala, an associate professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire.

"If you're in there long enough, you see good times and bad times," Scala said.

Blame and possibilities

Former Republican governor John Sununu, who served from 1983 to 1989, disagreed with the premise that third terms are necessarily harder. He relished all three of his terms, he said, and would have gone for another if other work hadn't beckoned. (He had planned to go into the private sector, but instead he wound up serving as chief of staff to President George H.W. Bush.) Sununu, who is running for chairman of the Republican Party, said that as governor, he tried to swing at each issue as it came up.

He faulted Lynch for what he described as a pattern of kicking problems down the road. "The only thing that's going to make this term hard for Gov. Lynch is the unsettled issues from the first two terms," Sununu said.

On the other side of the political spectrum, former state senator Mary Louise Hancock agrees that it will doubtless be a tough two years. But, the Concord Democrat argues, New Hampshire will be lucky to have a governor who works "so assiduously and carefully" and who has a temperament even enough to keep all sides talking.

"I don't mean to deify him, but it's very difficult to get into a disagreement with John. He's got a lovely disposition and he's very tolerant," Hancock said. "He's not disparaging of people. Once in a while, I'll complain about people and he'll say, 'Well, there's a good side, too.' "

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