Democrat Jim MacKay "is experienced, knows all the players and can make real change on our behalf," wrote one commenter on the Monitor website days before Tuesday's election. Republican Lynne Blankenbeker "is fiscally conservative, knowing how to prioritize and set a budget," wrote another.

Somehow, in an overwhelmingly Democratic district in Concord, Blankenbeker, a rookie Republican politician, edged out MacKay, a five-term former legislator, by 20 votes to win a seat in the New Hampshire House. Both ran aggressive campaigns. What happened?

To Republicans, it was all about message. "Lynne Blankenbeker's election was a shot across the bow for the Democrats in New Hampshire," said state Republican Party Chairman John Sununu. "That she as a conservative Republican won in Concord, it tells Gov. Lynch that even the people of Concord don't like that the governor does nothing but sign spending bills that the Democratically controlled House and Senate send him. Stop this spending spree. Go back and cut spending and reduce taxes."

State Republicans helped Blankenbeker with mailers, phone calls and door-to-door campaigning. "It's an indication that the New Hampshire Republican Party has the resources and ability to elect our candidates in special elections," said party spokesman Ryan Williams.

To Democrats, it was all about turnout. The final vote was 858-838, with turnout in each of the four wards ranging from 10.4 percent to 17.2 percent. "There was extraordinarily low turnout, lower than we anticipated," said state Democratic Party Chairman Ray Buckley.

Buckley added that

Blankenbeker's win, which is going to a recount, does not change the Democratic majority in the Legislature. "The Democrats still have a majority by far. We'll move on."

Buckley noted that out of 113 races for mayor, city council, school board or other citywide offices, registered Republicans won just 28.

(One caveat: most citywide races, including those in Concord, were nonpartisan. Some, like the Concord mayoral race, were unopposed.)

Rob Werner, a Concord city councilor and former chairman of the Merrimack County Democrats, said he believes that although the district is heavily Democratic, the turnout "was a very different electorate than came out a year ago."

MacKay had served in the Legislature as a Republican, then switched parties to run this year. Werner noted that MacKay's support within the electorate had been declining over the last couple of elections, leading to his defeat in 2008. And he said the switch in parties may have hurt him. "He certainly didn't have any history with Democrats," Werner said.

Andy Smith of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center said Blankenbeker's win fits in with a trend that led to Republican victories nationally. Despite a national focus on the role of independents, Smith said 70 percent of registered independents really vote as either Republicans or Democrats. "In 2006-2008, Democrats were much more motivated to come out and vote, in New Hampshire and nationwide. This time Republicans were more likely to come out and vote," Smith said.

No more NRSC money

The National Republican Senatorial Committee will no longer spend money in contested primaries.

NRSC Chairman Sen. John Cornyn told ABC News this week, "We have to look at our resources. . . . We're not going to throw money into a (primary) race leading up to the election." So who cares?

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