Baseball's open free agency period begins at 12:01 a.m. tomorrow, and it concludes ... probably some time around the 2010 All-Star break.
If you monitored last year's Hot Stove League, you saw that it went well into spring training, with Manny Ramirez rejoining the Dodgers on March 5. Teams like the Dodgers, Angels (Bobby Abreu) and Nationals (Adam Dunn) benefited by realizing that, as the clock ticked toward Opening Day, the players had more to lose than did the clubs.
So expect this baseball winter to drag like the time between Dan Brown novels. Expect the owners to work like heck to keep the prices down as effectively as they did last winter.
For my rankings, I took away all of the subjectivity and relied exclusively on WAR, or Wins Above Replacement. It's a metric devised by respected statistical analyst Tom Tango that calculates how many victories each player produced relative to the "replacement-level player" at his position. I added each free agent's WAR of the last two years.
So these rankings don't reflect the top 25 most wanted free agents, but they do represent the top 25 most valuable free agents of the last two years. The projected contracts include other factors such as players' ages, Q factors and respective markets, and individual teams' finances and motivations.
1. Matt Holliday, OF
The most impactful player available. Prediction: Cardinals, seven years, $120 million
2. Chone Figgins, IF-OF
Becomes less valuable if you play him in the outfield. Prediction: Angels, three years, $21 million
3. Mike Cameron, OF
The only true center fielder available on the market. Prediction: Cubs, two years, $20 million
4. Andy Pettitte, LHP
His agents, Randy and Alan Hendricks, must stay up late at night and wonder how much Pettitte could've made had he prioritized dollars. Prediction: Yankees, one year, $13 million
5. Marco Scutaro, SS
Put up a career year in '09; now he's 34. Prediction: Red Sox, two years, $14 million
6. Johnny Damon, OF
Some of his batted-ball numbers indicate he could be headed for a decline. Prediction: Angels, two years, $16 million
7. Adrian Beltre, 3B
Poor offensive numbers distract from his excellent defense. Prediction: Cardinals, one year, $6 million
8. Jason Bay, OF
His defense isn't highly regarded, but his success in Boston should translate into earnings. Prediction: Red Sox, four years, $68.5 million
9. Placido Polanco, 2B
A poor offensive 2009 will hurt his market. Prediction: Nationals, one year, $4 million
10. Rich Harden, RHP
Tremendous results when he's on the mound. But how often will he be on the mound? Prediction: Rangers, one year, $6 million
11. Randy Winn, OF
Could be a good low-end pickup for someone. Prediction: Braves, one year, $5 million
12. John Lackey, RHP
He'll benefit from a weak market for starting pitchers and suffer from the economy. Predictions: Mets, five years, $82.5 million
13. Marlon Byrd, OF
With good numbers in the AL, could be even better in the inferior NL. Predictions: Mets, two years, $13 million
14. Joel Pineiro, RHP
Was his terrific 2009 a real elevation, or just an aberration? And can he keep it up without Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan? Prediction: Diamondbacks, two years, $16 million
15. Miguel Tejada, IF
There's an assumption that he'll switch from shortstop to third base, but he can still rake and has a great clubhouse reputation. Prediction: Mariners, one year, $7 million
16. Jason Marquis, RHP
He came back to earth after a superb first half. An established innings-eater. Prediction: Brewers, three years, $21 million
17. Mark DeRosa, IF-OF
Can do plenty, but age (35 in February) has to raise questions. Prediction: Phillies, two years, $8 million
18. Felipe Lopez, 2B
Put up an outstanding 2009, and he's only 29. Prediction: Dodgers, two years, $12 million
19. Troy Glaus, 3B-OF
He attempted a conversion to the outfield toward the end of the season. Could it actually take? Prediction: Red Sox, one year, $4 million
20. Randy Wolf, LHP
Can't see an AL team making a serious run at him. Prediction: Washington, two years, $15 million
21. Orlando Hudson, 2B
Will his postseason benching hurt his earning power? Prediction: Brewers, two years, $12 million
22. Bengie Molina, C
The only Type A catcher who, therefore, will cost a team's draft pick. Prediction: Mets, two years, $12 million
23. Jon Garland, RHP
His switch to the NL helped some, but not a great deal. Prediction: Orioles, one year, $7 million
24. Randy Johnson, LHP
Looked like he had something left early last year, but then he hurt his pitching shoulder. Prediction: Retirement
25. Doug Davis, LHP
Has been pretty steady, and Milwaukee claimed him on waivers in August. Prediction: Brewers, one year, $8 million
New York specials
Carlos Delgado, 1B
If the Mets spend on pitcher, catcher and outfield, could he be a low-risk option at first base? Prediction: Mets, one year, $3 million
Hideki Matsui, DH
It comes down to, how important is it for him to remain a Yankee? Prediction: Yankees, one year, $7 million
Jason Giambi, DH-1B
Seemed like a really good fit as a pinch hitter with the Rockies, but says he wants to DH every day in the AL. Prediction: Giants, one year, $700,000
Billy Wagner, LHP
It won't be an easy market out there for closers. Prediction: Accepts arbitration from Red Sox
Pedro Martinez, RHP
Wouldn't he be better off trying the half-year plan? He says not. Prediction: Phillies, one year, $3.75 million