Ranking the free agents

Baseball's open free agency period begins at 12:01 a.m. tomorrow, and it concludes ... probably some time around the 2010 All-Star break.

If you monitored last year's Hot Stove League, you saw that it went well into spring training, with Manny Ramirez rejoining the Dodgers on March 5. Teams like the Dodgers, Angels (Bobby Abreu) and Nationals (Adam Dunn) benefited by realizing that, as the clock ticked toward Opening Day, the players had more to lose than did the clubs.

So expect this baseball winter to drag like the time between Dan Brown novels. Expect the owners to work like heck to keep the prices down as effectively as they did last winter.

For my rankings, I took away all of the subjectivity and relied exclusively on WAR, or Wins Above Replacement. It's a metric devised by respected statistical analyst Tom Tango that calculates how many victories each player produced relative to the "replacement-level player" at his position. I added each free agent's WAR of the last two years.

So these rankings don't reflect the top 25 most wanted free agents, but they do represent the top 25 most valuable free agents of the last two years. The projected contracts include other factors such as players' ages, Q factors and respective markets, and individual teams' finances and motivations.

1. Matt Holliday, OF

The most impactful player available. Prediction: Cardinals, seven years, $120 million

2. Chone Figgins, IF-OF

Becomes less valuable if you play him in the outfield. Prediction: Angels, three years, $21 million

3. Mike Cameron, OF

The only true center fielder available on the market. Prediction: Cubs, two years, $20 million

4. Andy Pettitte, LHP

His agents, Randy and Alan Hendricks, must stay up late at night and wonder how much Pettitte could've made had he prioritized dollars. Prediction: Yankees, one year, $13 million

5. Marco Scutaro, SS

Put up a career year in '09; now he's 34. Prediction: Red Sox, two years, $14 million

6. Johnny Damon, OF

Some of his batted-ball numbers indicate he could be headed for a decline. Prediction: Angels, two years, $16 million

7. Adrian Beltre, 3B

Poor offensive numbers distract from his excellent defense. Prediction: Cardinals, one year, $6 million

8. Jason Bay, OF

His defense isn't highly regarded, but his success in Boston should translate into earnings. Prediction: Red Sox, four years, $68.5 million

9. Placido Polanco, 2B

A poor offensive 2009 will hurt his market. Prediction: Nationals, one year, $4 million

10. Rich Harden, RHP

Tremendous results when he's on the mound. But how often will he be on the mound? Prediction: Rangers, one year, $6 million

11. Randy Winn, OF

Could be a good low-end pickup for someone. Prediction: Braves, one year, $5 million

12. John Lackey, RHP

He'll benefit from a weak market for starting pitchers and suffer from the economy. Predictions: Mets, five years, $82.5 million

13. Marlon Byrd, OF

With good numbers in the AL, could be even better in the inferior NL. Predictions: Mets, two years, $13 million

14. Joel Pineiro, RHP

Was his terrific 2009 a real elevation, or just an aberration? And can he keep it up without Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan? Prediction: Diamondbacks, two years, $16 million

15. Miguel Tejada, IF

There's an assumption that he'll switch from shortstop to third base, but he can still rake and has a great clubhouse reputation. Prediction: Mariners, one year, $7 million

16. Jason Marquis, RHP

He came back to earth after a superb first half. An established innings-eater. Prediction: Brewers, three years, $21 million

17. Mark DeRosa, IF-OF

Can do plenty, but age (35 in February) has to raise questions. Prediction: Phillies, two years, $8 million (next page »)