'Jeanne Shaheen is in a strong position to be the next senator from New Hampshire," says Bob Smith, the former senator from New Hampshire.

Smith was a member of the U.S. Senate until 2002, when he lost the Republican primary to John Sununu. Sununu went on to beat Shaheen, then a three-term governor, in the general election. Last week, Shaheen announced that she's running for a rematch with Sununu in 2008.

This election is shaping up to be a lot rougher for Sununu than the last one. Several polls this summer have had Shaheen beating Sununu by double-digit margins. Pointing to Harry Truman, Smith warned us to be wary of reading too much into polls. "I don't believe that anybody should ever be counted out based on a poll," Smith said.

In several recent interviews, Sununu has emphasized his electoral prowess, noting that he beat an incumbent senator and then an incumbent governor in order to win his seat. Smith didn't put much stock in that, either.

"There's a huge difference between 2002 and 2008," Smith said. "If I was the incumbent senator, Mr. Sununu, I would not be looking back, resting on my laurels."

New Hampshire is a whole lot less conservative than it was when he started running in the 1980s, said Smith, who has retired to Sarasota, Fla., but keeps a home in Tuftonboro that he visits in the summer.

And Sununu's task isn't just convincing independent voters that he's their man. Smith thinks Sununu has to woo a Republican base that, on the whole, is disenchanted with its representatives in Washington and what they've done on spending and immigration.

"Republicans across the country - and I talk to a lot of them every day - are very disenchanted with the party," he said. "The Republicans have let down their party and let down the country. They lost the majority because they didn't stick to their principles."

Smith, who briefly left the Republican Party to mount an independent presidential campaign in 2000, said he's a Republican now but declined to say if he preferred Sununu or Shaheen in the election. There is "no love lost" between Smith and the man who toppled him in 2002, Smith said, but he had warm words for Shaheen.

"I think she's an excellent politician. I think she is a good person, I know her very well, I like her," he said. They worked closely on security issues after Sept. 11, and Shaheen attended his retirement party in 2003. Sununu did not.

Smith said he has no plan to return to politics but hasn't ruled it out.

"Maybe I'll come up and run against Sununu in the primary - tongue in cheek," he said. "You can print it if you like, but say he laughed when he said it."

Marching on

We caught up with Steve Marchand on Shaheen's Madbury lawn Sunday. The Portsmouth mayor and recently-dropped-out Senate candidate was on hand to give his well wishes to the newest Senate candidate.

Marchand said he's not sure what's next for him. "I'm 33 years old," he said. "I've got time."

"People have asked 'Is it a difficult decision?' It depends how you mean," he said. He'd invested quite a bit in the race but thinks Shaheen has the best shot at beating Sununu in 2008.

"Do I think I could beat John Sununu? I do," Marchand said. "But this race is too big to not line it up with the person that can get the job done the best and would do the best job down there."

At last count, Dartmouth Medical Professor Jay Buckey was staying in the race, while Bow activist Katrina Swett hadn't said if she will stay in.

Evolving regrets?

We asked Shaheen Sunday if she regretted her 2002 position on Iraq. As a Senate candidate then, she supported the impending war, as did Sununu.

Standing on her lawn, Shaheen said: "No, I think I represented the position of most of the American people. We believed what President Bush told us when he said Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction and that he was a threat to the United States. Clearly, if I knew then what I know now, I would not have supported it." (next page »)