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Scientist warned of mudslide danger 15 years ago

  • A search and rescue team brings out the tarp-covered body of a victim of Saturday's mudslide, Monday, March 24, 2014, near Oso, Wash. The search for survivors of the deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through a rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)

    A search and rescue team brings out the tarp-covered body of a victim of Saturday's mudslide, Monday, March 24, 2014, near Oso, Wash. The search for survivors of the deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through a rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)

  • Iraq War veteran and local Little League coach Matt Pater, 32, searches through debris following Saturday's destructive mudslide, near Oso Wash, Monday, March 24, 2014. The search for survivors of Saturday's deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through the rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)

    Iraq War veteran and local Little League coach Matt Pater, 32, searches through debris following Saturday's destructive mudslide, near Oso Wash, Monday, March 24, 2014. The search for survivors of Saturday's deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through the rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)

  • Rescue workers remove a body from the wreckage of homes destroyed by Saturday's mudslide near Oso, Wash, on Monday, March 24, 2014. The search for survivors of Saturday's deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through the rural community rose to at least 14.  (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)

    Rescue workers remove a body from the wreckage of homes destroyed by Saturday's mudslide near Oso, Wash, on Monday, March 24, 2014. The search for survivors of Saturday's deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through the rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)

  • From a helicopter, Snohomish County Sheriff Ty Trenary surveys the wreckage of homes destroyed in Saturday's mudslide, Monday, March 24, 2014, near Oso, Wash. The search for survivors grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through a rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)

    From a helicopter, Snohomish County Sheriff Ty Trenary surveys the wreckage of homes destroyed in Saturday's mudslide, Monday, March 24, 2014, near Oso, Wash. The search for survivors grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through a rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)

  • Rescue workers remove one of a number of bodies from the wreckage of homes destroyed by a mudslide near Oso, Wash, Monday, March 24, 2014. The search for survivors of Saturday's deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through the rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)

    Rescue workers remove one of a number of bodies from the wreckage of homes destroyed by a mudslide near Oso, Wash, Monday, March 24, 2014. The search for survivors of Saturday's deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through the rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)

  • An intact house sits at left at the edge of the massive mudslide that killed at least eight people and left dozens missing is shown in this aerial photo, Monday, March 24, 2014, near Arlington, Wash. The search for survivors grew Monday, raising fears that the death toll could climb far beyond the eight confirmed fatalities. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

    An intact house sits at left at the edge of the massive mudslide that killed at least eight people and left dozens missing is shown in this aerial photo, Monday, March 24, 2014, near Arlington, Wash. The search for survivors grew Monday, raising fears that the death toll could climb far beyond the eight confirmed fatalities. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

  • A rescue worker is lowered from a helicopter, right, near Oso, Wash, Monday, March 24, 2014. The search for survivors of Saturday's deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through the rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)

    A rescue worker is lowered from a helicopter, right, near Oso, Wash, Monday, March 24, 2014. The search for survivors of Saturday's deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through the rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)

  • Search and rescue personnel continue working the area of Saturday's mudslide, Monday, March 24, 2014, near Oso, Wash. The search for survivors of the deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through a rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)

    Search and rescue personnel continue working the area of Saturday's mudslide, Monday, March 24, 2014, near Oso, Wash. The search for survivors of the deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through a rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)

  • Shelby Stafford, 14, and Hailey Hudson, 17, hold a banner they made at Darrington High School in the wake of Saturday's mudslide in Snohomish County, near Oso, Wash on Monday, March 24, 2014. The search for survivors of Saturday's deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through the rural community rose to at least 14.  (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)

    Shelby Stafford, 14, and Hailey Hudson, 17, hold a banner they made at Darrington High School in the wake of Saturday's mudslide in Snohomish County, near Oso, Wash on Monday, March 24, 2014. The search for survivors of Saturday's deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through the rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)

  • Search and rescue personnel continue working the area of Saturday's mudslide, Monday, March 24, 2014, near Oso, Wash. The search for survivors of the deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through a rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)

    Search and rescue personnel continue working the area of Saturday's mudslide, Monday, March 24, 2014, near Oso, Wash. The search for survivors of the deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through a rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)

  • Darrington High School students make posters in the wake of Saturday's mudslide on Highway 530 in Snohomish County, Monday, March 24, 2014. The search for survivors of Saturday's deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through the rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)

    Darrington High School students make posters in the wake of Saturday's mudslide on Highway 530 in Snohomish County, Monday, March 24, 2014. The search for survivors of Saturday's deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through the rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)

  • Iraq War veteran and local Little League coach Matt Pater, 32, creates a bridge to check a floating section of a home in a field of debris following Saturday's destructive mudslide, near Oso Wash, Monday, March 24, 2014. The search for survivors of Saturday's deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through the rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)

    Iraq War veteran and local Little League coach Matt Pater, 32, creates a bridge to check a floating section of a home in a field of debris following Saturday's destructive mudslide, near Oso Wash, Monday, March 24, 2014. The search for survivors of Saturday's deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through the rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)

  • Rachel Bailey checks a map of the Oso mudslide area at the Darrington IGA market Monday, March 24, 2014, in Darrington, Wash. Friends of Bailey are still missing from the mudslide.   (AP Photo /The Herald, Sofia Jaramillo)

    Rachel Bailey checks a map of the Oso mudslide area at the Darrington IGA market Monday, March 24, 2014, in Darrington, Wash. Friends of Bailey are still missing from the mudslide. (AP Photo /The Herald, Sofia Jaramillo)

  • A searcher uses a small boat to look through debris from a deadly mudslide Tuesday, March 25, 2014, in Oso, Wash. At least 14 people were killed in the 1-square-mile slide that hit in a rural area about 55 miles northeast of Seattle on Saturday. Several people also were critically injured, and homes were destroyed. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)

    A searcher uses a small boat to look through debris from a deadly mudslide Tuesday, March 25, 2014, in Oso, Wash. At least 14 people were killed in the 1-square-mile slide that hit in a rural area about 55 miles northeast of Seattle on Saturday. Several people also were critically injured, and homes were destroyed. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)

  • A search and rescue team brings out the tarp-covered body of a victim of Saturday's mudslide, Monday, March 24, 2014, near Oso, Wash. The search for survivors of the deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through a rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)
  • Iraq War veteran and local Little League coach Matt Pater, 32, searches through debris following Saturday's destructive mudslide, near Oso Wash, Monday, March 24, 2014. The search for survivors of Saturday's deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through the rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)
  • Rescue workers remove a body from the wreckage of homes destroyed by Saturday's mudslide near Oso, Wash, on Monday, March 24, 2014. The search for survivors of Saturday's deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through the rural community rose to at least 14.  (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)
  • From a helicopter, Snohomish County Sheriff Ty Trenary surveys the wreckage of homes destroyed in Saturday's mudslide, Monday, March 24, 2014, near Oso, Wash. The search for survivors grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through a rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)
  • Rescue workers remove one of a number of bodies from the wreckage of homes destroyed by a mudslide near Oso, Wash, Monday, March 24, 2014. The search for survivors of Saturday's deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through the rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)
  • An intact house sits at left at the edge of the massive mudslide that killed at least eight people and left dozens missing is shown in this aerial photo, Monday, March 24, 2014, near Arlington, Wash. The search for survivors grew Monday, raising fears that the death toll could climb far beyond the eight confirmed fatalities. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)
  • A rescue worker is lowered from a helicopter, right, near Oso, Wash, Monday, March 24, 2014. The search for survivors of Saturday's deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through the rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)
  • Search and rescue personnel continue working the area of Saturday's mudslide, Monday, March 24, 2014, near Oso, Wash. The search for survivors of the deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through a rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)
  • Shelby Stafford, 14, and Hailey Hudson, 17, hold a banner they made at Darrington High School in the wake of Saturday's mudslide in Snohomish County, near Oso, Wash on Monday, March 24, 2014. The search for survivors of Saturday's deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through the rural community rose to at least 14.  (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)
  • Search and rescue personnel continue working the area of Saturday's mudslide, Monday, March 24, 2014, near Oso, Wash. The search for survivors of the deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through a rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)
  • Darrington High School students make posters in the wake of Saturday's mudslide on Highway 530 in Snohomish County, Monday, March 24, 2014. The search for survivors of Saturday's deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through the rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)
  • Iraq War veteran and local Little League coach Matt Pater, 32, creates a bridge to check a floating section of a home in a field of debris following Saturday's destructive mudslide, near Oso Wash, Monday, March 24, 2014. The search for survivors of Saturday's deadly mudslide grew Monday to include scores of people who were still unaccounted for as the death toll from the wall of trees, rocks and debris that swept through the rural community rose to at least 14. (AP Photo/seattlepi.com, Joshua Trujillo)
  • Rachel Bailey checks a map of the Oso mudslide area at the Darrington IGA market Monday, March 24, 2014, in Darrington, Wash. Friends of Bailey are still missing from the mudslide.   (AP Photo /The Herald, Sofia Jaramillo)
  • A searcher uses a small boat to look through debris from a deadly mudslide Tuesday, March 25, 2014, in Oso, Wash. At least 14 people were killed in the 1-square-mile slide that hit in a rural area about 55 miles northeast of Seattle on Saturday. Several people also were critically injured, and homes were destroyed. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)

A scientist working for the government had warned 15 years ago about the potential for a catastrophic landslide in the Washington village where the collapse of a rain-soaked hillside over the weekend killed at least 14 people and left scores missing.

As rescue workers slogged through the muck and rain in search of victims yesterday, word of the 1999 report raised questions about why residents were allowed to build homes on the hill and whether officials had taken proper precautions.

“I knew it would fail catastrophically in a large-magnitude event,” though not when it would happen, said Daniel Miller, a geomorphologist who was hired by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to do the study. “I was not surprised.”

Snohomish County officials and authorities in the devastated fishing village of Oso said that they were not aware of the study.

But John Pennington, director of the county Emergency Department, said local authorities were vigilant about warning the public of landslide dangers, and homeowners “were very aware of the slide potential.”

In fact, the area has long been known as the “Hazel Landslide” because of landslides over the past half-century. The last major one before Saturday’s disaster was in 2006.

“We’ve done everything we could to protect them,” Pennington said.

Patricia Graesser, a spokeswoman for the Army Corps of Engineers in Seattle, said it appears that the report was intended not as a risk assessment, but as a feasibility study for ecosystem restoration.

Asked whether the agency should have done anything with the information, she said: “We don’t have jurisdiction to do anything. We don’t do zoning. That’s a local responsibility.”

No landslide warnings for the area were issued before the disaster, which came after weeks of heavy rain. The rushing wall of quicksand-like mud, trees and other debris flattened about two dozen homes and critically injured several people.

“One of the things this tragedy should teach us is the need to get better information about geologic hazards out to the general public,” said David Montgomery, a geomorphologist and professor with the University of Washington in Seattle. “Where are the potentially unstable slopes? How big a risk do they pose? And what should be done to let homeowners know about that?”

Meanwhile, searchers continued to pick through the debris, warning they were likely to find more bodies. Authorities were working off a list of 176 people unaccounted for, though some names were believed to be duplicates.

The threat of flash floods or another landslide loomed over the rescuers.

Near the southern perimeter of the slide, volunteers from a logging crew gathered to help move debris with chainsaws, excavators and other heavy equipment.

Gene Karger said he could see six orange flags in the debris field, marking bodies they would be pulling out. Karger, a logger most of his life, said it was the first time he was involved in this kind of rescue work.

“You see parts of their bodies sticking out of the mud. It’s real hard. It’s that bad,” Karger said. “There are people out there we know.”

In his report, Miller said that the soil on the steep slope lacked any binding agent that would make it more secure, and that the underlying layers of silt and sand could give way in a “large catastrophic failure.”

But he also cautioned: “I currently have no basis for estimating the probable rate or timing of future landslide activity.”

In an interview yesterday, Miller noted there are hundreds of similar landslides in Washington state each year, and this particular river valley has had three very large slides in the last three decades.

Predicting landslides is difficult, according to a study published by the U.S. Geological Survey in 2012. One challenge is estimating the probability of a slide in any particular place.

Homeowners insurance typically does not cover landslide damage, but customers can purchase such coverage, said Karl Newman, president of NW Insurance Council, a trade group in the Northwest.

One of the authors of the USGS report, Jonathan Godt, a research scientist with the agency in Colorado, said landslides don’t get that much attention because they often happen in places where they don’t hit anything.

But with Americans building homes deeper into the wilderness, he said, “there are more people in the way.”

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