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New study aims to identify the climactic tipping point for cities around the globe

Locations around the globe will soon reach climatic tipping points, with some in tropical regions – home to most of the world’s biodiversity – feeling the first impacts of unprecedented eras of elevated temperatures as soon as seven years from now, according to a study released yesterday.

On average, locations worldwide will leave behind the climates that have existed from the middle of the 19th century through the beginning of the 21st century by 2047 if no progress is made in curbing emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, said researchers at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, who sought to project the timing of that event for 54,000 locations.

If they are correct, the transition would occur by 2020 in Manokwari, Indonesia; by 2023 in Kingston, Jamaica; by 2029 in Lagos, Nigeria; by 2047 in Washington, D.C.; by 2066 in Reykjavik, Iceland; and by 2071 in Anchorage, Alaska.

“The boundary of passing from the climate of the past to the climate of the future really happens surprisingly soon,” said Christopher Field, director of the Department of Global Ecology at the Carnegie Institution for Science, who was not part of the research team but has read the study, published in the journal Nature.

Researchers said at a news briefing that their estimates are “conservative,” based on mountains of data from 39 different models and accurate within five years in either direction for any of the locations they studied.

Although scientific research shows more warming occurs nearer Earth’s poles – and the melting of Arctic ice sheets is the iconic image of a warming planet – the tropics are especially vulnerable because even a small change in climate will affect a wide range of species. It is also alarming because the area around the equator is home to billions of people in poor nations with fewer resources to help them cope.

The new study is hardly the first to document the steady march toward hotter temperatures around the globe. But by predicting the tipping point when traditional climates will be replaced by hotter futures, the new study’s group – led by Camilo Mora, an assistant professor in the University of Hawaii at Manoa’s geography department – provided a fresh
way to look at a problem that often is seen as a global phenomenon.

Legacy Comments6

The frequency of dismissive and ignorant posts from the usual suspects in response to climate science news never ceases to sadden and amaze--but not surprise. What do they really think is going on when they (half)read such news? Do they really believe that the science on which these stories are based is false? Do they seriously think that some cabal of scientists and governments is engaged in a nefarious plot to...what...I wonder? The degree to which deniers are willingly deceived and dismissive of reality is mind-boggling. It's ironic that those who rail most loudly against "low-information" voters demonstrate daily here how poorly informed they are on most topics. This is to such an extent that it's almost axiomatic--the stronger one's opinion on a topic--the less one knows about it.

Your right Bruce. There are some people who if you told them a table is flat and the earth is round only hear is flat earth.

The experts predicted a very busy hurricane season this year, terrible drought, fires and tornadoes. Only, none of it happened. Record low occurrences of all of them...ask them why..and they dont know. No clue...none.

Thanks for doing your loyal bit to try to obscure and confuse the issue--the deniosphere would settle for nothing less, and appreciates your efforts, I'm sure. But you are confusing weather and climate. A focus on year to year variability can obscure longer term trends, but is always seized upon by deniers as "proof" that the climate is not changing. Predictions for any one year regarding hurricane numbers are not a guarantee. As for "record low occurrences" of drought and fires...not so much: "Record heat and below-average rainfall over the past few summers have combined to make the current U.S. drought one of the worst since the 1950’s. As of July 2013, nearly half of the Lower 48 is experiencing drier than normal conditions or worse." As for "why" 2013 hurricanes and tornadoes are currently at record lows, while the results may have come as a surprise to climatologists, that doesn't alter or diminish the fact the planet is warming, and that the warming has a human footprint. Climate change is not a steady progression of warming, or drought, or more intense storms, or heavier rainfall events, etc. But in the long run, that does seem to be the trend.

The Globul Warming Alarmist movement is dead. Their demise was due to one simple FACT - The globe has ... not... Not....NOT warmed in almost 2 decades.

Save this article so we can laugh at the Globul Warming Alarmist in the future.

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