PHILADELPHIA – The Democratic National Committee is expected to endorse a dramatic change to the top of its presidential nominating calendar for the 2024 election cycle, bumping New Hampshire from its cherished century-old position as the first-in-the-nation presidential primary.

The vote by the DNC may be the final nail in the coffin for Granite State Democrats, who have fought the push by the national party to alter their primary schedule to give more early representation to Black and Hispanic voters in a party that’s become increasingly diverse.

The DNC’s 483 voting members, on the concluding day of their winter meeting held this year in Philadelphia, are likely to overwhelmingly approve a proposal by President Joe Biden to move South Carolina to the leadoff position in the Democrats’ primary calendar, on Feb. 3, 2024, with New Hampshire and Nevada holding primaries three days later, followed by Georgia on Feb. 13 and  Michigan two weeks later.

That’s a dramatic switch from the current calendar, which has seen the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary lead off the process for five decades. But both states have been knocked by national Democrats for years as unrepresentative of the party as a whole, namely being too white and rural. Nevada and South Carolina, which in recent cycles have voted third and fourth in the calendar, are much more diverse than either Iowa or New Hampshire.

The president and supporters of the plan argue that it would empower minority voters whom Democrats have long relied on, but have at times taken for granted.

“We feel good about the calendar we’re putting out there and I think it’s something the full DNC can and will get behind,” said Mo Elleithee, a top DNC official on the party’s Rules and Bylaws Committee.

The Rules and Bylaws panel gave initial approval to the calendar change in a December vote where New Hampshire and Iowa – whose caucuses have led off the party’s calendar for half a century – were the only two no votes.

“I love New Hampshire. I have shed my fair share of political blood, sweat and tears up in the Granite State, and I don’t see why this has to be such a big issue,” Elleithee, a veteran of numerous presidential campaigns, said. “New Hampshire has historically been second in the nation, and we have given them their second in the nation status while elevating some other voices, which is what the people of New Hampshire say they want to do as well.”

Longtime New Hampshire Democratic Party chair Ray Buckley, who along with the state’s all Democratic congressional delegation has been fighting the proposed calendar changes, told reporters on the eve of the vote that “we’re not going to ask for a roll call or make a motion. We’re simply going to stand up and explain in clear terms what the situation is. There’s a lot of misinformation out there. We want to make sure people understand the situation New Hampshire is in.”

The DNC is insisting that New Hampshire, in order to keep its early voting slot in the new calendar, needs to scrap a decades-old state law that protects its first-in-the-nation primary status and must pass legislation to expand access to early voting. With Republicans in control of the governor’s office and both houses of the state legislature, state Democrats have argued that’s a non-starter in New Hampshire.

That means an unsanctioned – or rogue – Democratic primary in New Hampshire would be held on the same day as Republicans – who are not changing their longstanding order of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. The DNC could penalize New Hampshire and any candidates that take part in the Granite State’s Democratic presidential primary for violating the party’s new calendar.

Republican Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire has repeatedly slammed Biden and the DNC for the change while state Republicans have relished the Democrat-on-Democrat slug fest. Sununu has reiterated that “we’re going first no matter what.”

“Republicans have already begun to attack Democrats over this proposed calendar, and we expect them to use it as a wedge for New Hampshire’s fiercely independent electorate going into 2024,” Buckley warned.

Buckley pointed to former President Donald Trump, who attacked the Democrats and Biden over the primary in a speech last weekend as he campaigned in New Hampshire. Those arguments could be persuasive with Granite State independents, who make up 40% of the electorate in the state.

Spotlighting New Hampshire’s status as one of a dozen crucial general election battleground states, Buckley argued that the new calendar was a “self-inflicted wound by the DNC ” and charged that it’s “mindboggling that the national party would take steps that so clearly detrimental to the fortunes of Democratic candidates’ ability to win in November of 2024 in such a battleground state.”

The president came in a distant fourth in the Iowa caucuses and fifth in the New Hampshire primary in 2020, before rebounding to a second place finish in Nevada and winning South Carolina by a landslide, boosting him towards the Democratic nomination and eventually the White House. Biden’s push to move South Carolina to the top of the 2024 calendar is another signal he intends to run for re-election next year.

But New Hampshire Democrats warn that New Hampshire will still go first, and that an unsanctioned primary where Biden doesn’t take part could invite trouble for the president.

“President Biden will not file for election in the New Hampshire primary, which will still go first,” Buckley predicted.

“This will set him up, we believe, for an embarrassing situation where the first primary in the country will be won by someone other than the president,” Buckley said. “This will only fuel chatter about Democrats divisions.”

Buckley noted that the Democratic primary in New Hampshire has a history of tripping up front-runners and that “it certainly could happen” once again in 2024.

But the arguments by New Hampshire Democrats seem the be falling on deaf ears.

During a meeting last week, members of the Rules and Bylaws Committee voted unanimously to give Georgia and New Hampshire until early June to come into compliance with the new proposed calendar. But in the latest chapter in this combustible Democratic Party feud, members of the panel said they were shocked by the pushback by New Hampshire Democrats, which they called “disturbing” and “irresponsible.”

On the eve of the full DNC vote on the calendar, Elleithee said it was “frustrating to me” to “watch the New Hampshire Democratic Party attacking the DNC” instead of trying to come into compliance.

“New Hampshire has a very longstanding and special role in this process. The DNC wants to keep them in that special role. We’re hopeful that they see that because going to war with the DNC isn’t going to help them keep it,” Elleithee added.

Haley headedto New Hampshire

Former Republican Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina, who served as ambassador to the United Nations during the Trump administration, is headed to New Hampshire on Feb. 16, according to sources close to her political orbit.

That’s the day after Haley is expected to declare her candidacy for president at an event that will be held in Charleston, South Carolina.

Sources say that Haley, who’s been sending plenty of 2024 signals in recent weeks, will hold two days of town-hall style events in New Hampshire after launching her presidential campaign in her home state.

Haley’s no stranger to New Hampshire. She’s made numerous visits the past two years to help fellow Republicans who were running in the 2022 elections.

Haley will become the second major Republican to launch a presidential campaign, following Trump, who announced his candidacy in mid-November.

]]>