As New Hampshire awaits an announcement from Republican Gov. Chris Sununu regarding his political future, conventional wisdom points towards the governor launching a GOP challenge against Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan.
If Sununu does decide to run for the Senate against this predecessor in the Corner Office, that would set up New Hampshire’s first open gubernatorial election in six years.
Behind the scenes, some potential contenders are already making some early moves in anticipation that Sununu won’t seek another two-year term steering the Granite State.
Multiple Republican sources tell the Monitor that state Education Department Commissioner Frank Edelblut has been quietly reaching out to potential supporters and donors in recent weeks, regarding a possible 2022 run for governor.
The businessman from Wilton and conservative politician was serving his first term as a state representative when he came in a very close second to then-Executive Councilor Sununu in a bruising battle among four major candidates for the 2016 GOP gubernatorial nomination.
Soon after taking office, Sununu nominated Edleblut – who with his wife homeschooled all seven of their children – as education commissioner. Over the years, Edelblut’s tenure steering the department has elicited both strong support and opposition.
“I’m not willing to rule out anything at this point in time,” Edelblut said this summer when asked by radio host Jack Heath on “Good Morning New Hampshire” about a potential gubernatorial run if Sununu doesn’t bid for re-election.
Sources tell the Monitor that Edelblut impressed the audience Thursday evening in Manchester as he spoke to the New Hampshire Home Builders Association about education and trends in the workforce. Even though he didn’t mention campaign politics in his address, some of the members of the trade association wondered following the speech whether a gubernatorial run may be in Edelblut’s future.
If he runs, Edelblut, long a proponent of the so-called “school choice” movement strongly supported by conservative voters, would likely spotlight New Hampshire’s Educational Savings Accounts which allow families to access taxpayer funds to pay for tuition at private schools, homeschooling programs, and other non-public education options. Long a goal of the right, the GOP-controlled legislature passed the bill this year and it was signed into law by the governor, who’s another proponent.
The commissioner was recently scolded by Sununu for speaking before the Government Integrity Project, a conservative activists organization that the governor’s labeled a “fringe group” that supports “anti-government actions.”
But the meeting will likely only endear Edelblut even further with the kind of conservative voters who will likely dominate a potentially far-right GOP gubernatorial primary next September if it’s a race for an open seat. Edelblut’s meeting came as the issue of education, and in particular parents’ rights in trying to dictate the curriculum of the schools their children attend, has soared as an issue in this year’s closely watched Virginia gubernatorial race and may likely linger as a top issue in next year’s elections
While Edelblut was speaking in Manchester on Thursday evening, state Senate President Chuck Morse was hosting his annual Harvest Fest fundraiser at Atkinson Country Club. There’s plenty of speculation that the longtime GOP state lawmaker from Salem will run for governor if Sununu doesn’t seek reelection. Republican sources at Thursday night’s fundraiser told the Monitor that the event was jam-packed with people waiting for an announcement from Morse.
While being very respectful of Sununu and his decision-making process, many business leaders and long-time Republican heavyweights would back a Morse gubernatorial run if Sununu doesn’t run for reelection.
A wildcard in the mix is former Republican U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte, who has stepped up her appearances at Republican events in New Hampshire this year. Once the most powerful Republican in New Hampshire, Ayotte seems to be in a similar situation regarding Sununu. Sources in her orbit say the former New Hampshire attorney general would take a very serious look at running for governor if the seat opens up.
On the other side of the aisle, there’s been constant speculation this year about a potential gubernatorial run by two-term Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, the former executive councilor who represents the state’s First Congressional District.
While Pappas has repeatedly said he expects to run for reelection, Republicans could force his hand. Thanks to the current once-in-a-decade redistricting process that in New Hampshire is in the hands of the GOP-controlled legislature and governor’s office, Pappas’ district could become more Republican-friendly in 2022.
Redistricting might also affect Democratic state Sen. Tom Sherman, who represents the Seacoast area. The gastroenterologist from Rye and ranking member and former chair of the state Senate Health and Human Services Committee has been a leading voice among Granite State Democrats in combating the coronavirus, the worst pandemic to strike the globe in a century.
Democratic sources say he’s having conversations about running for reelection, or possibly for an open gubernatorial or congressional race. They add that Sherman’s background as a doctor and a public health expert elevates his stature in the current COVID environment.
One top Democrat who won’t be running is former Senate Majority Leader Dan Feltes of Concord.
Feltes, who ran for governor in 2020, announced this week that he was moving back to Iowa after his wife, Erin, accepted a job as the deputy counsel at the University of Iowa in Iowa City. Both were born and raised in Iowa, but the couple met in New Hampshire, where they have spent the last fifteen years and had two children.
“We love it here, and we always will,” Feltes wrote on Facebook. “But like all two-career working families, we must make decisions that are best for our entire family.”