The start of every baseball season brings a lot of questions, and that’s definitely the case for the Boston Red Sox as they prepare for Monday’s season-opener against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Fenway Park.
How will they replace the giant hole left in the lineup by David Ortiz’s retirement? Is Mookie Betts going to be the new face of the team? Can Rick Porcello become the first AL pitcher since Pedro Martinez in 2000 to win back-to-back Cy Young Awards? Or is Chris Sale going to win his first? Can Pablo Sandoval redeem himself with Red Sox Nation? And most importantly, can this team compete for the World Series? If the Sox do get there, can they win it?
To get you ready for the upcoming season, let’s answer a few of those questions.
Professional baseball players rarely go out when they can still produce like Ortiz did for the Sox last season. His offensive impact cannot be overstated, even at age 40. In all but two of Ortiz’s 13 seasons in Boston, the Red Sox finished 15th or better in the league for home runs and never finished lower than ninth in doubles. Sure, Betts emerged as a power threat last season and Hanley Ramirez can still muscle a ball over the wall, but losing an average of 36 home runs and 119 RBI per year from the lineup is going to undoubtedly affect this year’s team. How the Red Sox replace Ortiz’s bat will likely be a repeating storyline throughout the season, as it was for most of spring training, but Big Papi’s absence only leaves room for someone else to step up.
Porcello, who will start Monday for the Sox, may be in a better position than any Cy Young winner in recent memory. Usually, pitchers coming off an award-winning season are immediately branded with ace-like expectations. Luckily for Porcello, Dave Dombrowski acquired Sale this offseason, which should take some heat off the reigning Cy Young winner. Of course, Red Sox Nation will still expect Porcello to produce at a high level, but he certainly won’t face the same pressures that Houston’s Dallas Kuechel did after winning the award in 2015, which led to a tough 9-12 campaign with an ERA of 4.55 in 2016. On top of that, Porcello has definitely earned the four-year, $82 million contract many questioned at first, so the pressures of pitching up to that standard should also be somewhat alleviated.
While the pressure on Porcello likely lessens this season, right fielder Mookie Betts should expect the exact opposite. The 24-year-old is coming off a career year – 31 HR, 113 RBI, .318 AVG – and finished second to Mike Trout in the 2016 MVP race. Betts finished 19th in MVP voting in 2015, but entered last season with subdued expectations, being only 23. He became a serious power threat who even took over Big Papi’s cleanup spot in mid-August and didn’t look back.
As the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier put it, Betts is “emerging as the most prominent player on one of the most prominent teams in baseball.” How he deals with that added pressure will be interesting, but it’s a promising sign that he’s already embracing his role as a superstar in a tough market like Boston. “At this point in life, I know where I am. I have learned to accept that I’m a role model for some people. I embrace it,” Betts told Speier. At least he knows what Red Sox Nation wants to hear.
One of the worst things about offseason trades is that fans have to wait months to see the newly acquired talent in action. And spring training numbers aren’t always the best indication of what to expect from a particular player – but Chris Sale’s numbers are worth mentioning. He’s struck out 26 batters in 21 innings pitched this spring, giving up just two walks and six earned runs. But a story from his March 16 start against the Pirates is a little more telling when it comes to what Boston should expect from Sale. Multiple reporters tweeted about Sale punching himself in the head with a baseball after failing to cover first base … during a spring training start … 17 days before a meaningful, regular-season pitch was thrown.
Sale is a born competitor. Whether it’s spring training or the ALCS, this guy competes every single day and that’s not going to change. Fans just have to hope that he can keep that intensity under control enough to avoid cutting up any more retro jerseys in the clubhouse.
All kidding aside, Sale is a star who has finished sixth or better in AL Cy Young voting five seasons in a row, while posting an average ERA of 3.04 with double-digit win totals each year. On top of Sale’s statistical dominance of the league’s best hitters, he’s posted a 16-10 record with a 2.58 ERA against the AL East over his seven-year career. Red Sox Nation can expect solid numbers this season but shouldn’t be surprised or irritated if it takes the five-time All-Star a little while to settle in at Fenway Park.
Sale just punched himself in the head with a baseball after he failed to cover first on what could’ve been a 4-1. In spring training.
— Alex Speier (@alexspeier) March 16, 2017
Sam Travis is one player worth keeping your eyes on this season. The first baseman, coming off an ACL injury that cut his season short a year ago, was a pleasant surprise during spring training. The 23-year-old seems to have added a little more pop at the plate after his season was cut short just 46 games in a year ago, all with Triple-A Pawtucket. Travis’s ascension to the major league roster may be aided by a shoulder injury to Ramirez, which kept the DH from making a single appearance at first during spring training. Offseason acquisition Mitch Moreland has played an average of 110 games per season over the last three years, so Travis inheriting some at-bats at first for the big league club is inevitable. It’ll be interesting to see what he does once he gets called up.
Speaking of Ramirez, Sandoval need look no further than the 33-year-old shortstop-turned-left-fielder-turned-first-baseman-turned-DH for advice on the long road back. Not so long ago, Ramirez faced similar persecution after trying his hand (and failing miserably) in left field. He finished the 2015 season with a career-low minus-1.3 WAR, which was tied for the eighth worst in all of Major League Baseball. Ramirez upped his WAR to 2.8 last season after switching to first base, and with the blessing of Ortiz, returned to the good graces of Red Sox Nation.
Sandoval won’t be granted the same luxury of having a Red Sox legend serve as an ambassador to his comeback, but that doesn’t mean he’s dead in the water. Sandoval slimmed down significantly over the offseason and showed off that long-forgotten-about bat speed during spring training, clocking five no-doubt home runs. But one of the issues with Sandoval has always been his ability to maintain. Reports in the past discussed his unhealthy eating habits, which eventually contributed to him missing all but three games last season. While even Sandoval himself understands the fans’ skepticism, he should be given the benefit of the doubt. The Red Sox are slim – no pun intended – on options at third base, so anyone wishing for Sandoval to fall flat on his face probably isn’t too concerned about winning.
The “best” of Hanley Ramirez in left field (AKA, why someone with .261/.305/.474, 19 HR, 46 RBI has -0.8 WAR) #RedSox pic.twitter.com/Yf0hr4gDZV
— Joon Lee (@iamjoonlee) July 22, 2015
The bullpen got significantly younger this offseason, which should be a sign of good things to come. Parting ways with aging relievers Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa, and bringing in a young budding star like Tyler Thornburg, should significantly improve a bullpen that became a liability by the end of last season. Carson Smith is also expected to return in June and it’s hard to imagine closer Craig Kimbrel duplicating his struggles from a year ago, though he has been trending in the wrong direction over the last two seasons. Brandon Workman will also add depth once he’s done rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. On paper – even with the recent developments on Thornburg’s shoulder injury – the bullpen looks a lot younger, a little stronger and significantly deeper this season.
A roster worth about $193 million should always compete for a World Series. If blessed with good health, the Red Sox will be there at the end – like they usually are. But concerns about life after Ortiz are real and cannot be ignored. Leadership like that is not easy to replace and is possibly more concerning than the loss of his bat in the lineup. Expect Dustin Pedroia and Betts to take over Ortiz’s role as the go-to guy and leader in the clubhouse, but those shoes will be tough to fill. Pedroia, who has never played for another team, is an astute observer who has been vocal in the past when he needed to be. I think the true value of the 33-year-old second baseman will be realized this season.
(Michelle Berthiaume can be reached at 369-3338, mberthiaume@cmonitor.com or on Twitter @MonitorMichelle.)