It seems like only yesterday that the United States was preparing to invade Iraq, justified by claims that Saddam Hussein was responsible for the World Trade Center attacks and was hiding weapons of mass destruction. Neither claim proved true. The rallying cry then — as now — was that “oil will pay for the war.” It did not.
As a Vietnam veteran and the husband of an Army wife, I strongly opposed the Iraq invasion, believing it would become another Vietnam. I was wrong — it turned out to be far worse. The Vietnam War cost over 58,000 American lives and peaked in 1969, ending a few years later. The Iraq War dragged on for more than two decades, killed thousands of U.S. service members, destabilized an entire region and cost American taxpayers trillions of dollars.
Given that history, it is worth asking: how would a U.S. military or political incursion into Venezuela benefit the United States?
According to Bloomberg News and energy analysts familiar with Venezuela’s oil sector, the answer is: it probably wouldn’t.
Venezuela’s oil infrastructure is in catastrophic condition. At its export ports, equipment is so degraded that loading a supertanker can take up to five days — a process that took just one day seven years ago. In the oil-rich Orinoco Basin, rigs have been abandoned, spills go unchecked and drilling sites are routinely looted and stripped for scrap. Underground pipelines leak or have been dismantled entirely, while fires and explosions have destroyed critical equipment.
The massive Paraguaná refining complex, once among the largest in the world, now operates sporadically due to breakdowns. Several of its oil upgraders — essential for processing Venezuela’s heavy crude — have been shut down.
What little production remains depends heavily on Chevron, which accounts for roughly a quarter of Venezuela’s output under a special U.S. license. Other major American firms best positioned to help rebuild the industry, such as ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, left after their assets were nationalized under Hugo Chávez. Both have indicated they would only consider returning under conditions that guarantee asset security — an implicit acknowledgment of the political and legal risks involved.
Compounding the problem, global oil markets are already oversupplied, prices remain low and Venezuela still owes billions of dollars to foreign companies from past expropriations. Any meaningful recovery of its oil sector would require massive private investment, years of rebuilding and likely a long-term foreign security presence.
The idea that Venezuelan oil could quickly or cheaply become a strategic benefit to the United States is unrealistic — and dangerously reminiscent of past wars sold on false economic promises. Until Venezuela can stabilize on its own, no further U.S. intervention in its oil assets is warranted.
Instead, the United States should disengage militarily from the region and focus on reducing drug trafficking — a far more direct threat to the health, safety and future of the American people.
Dr. Michael Sills was the Chief Engineer of the New Hampshire Environmental Agency for nearly 30 years. He also served as Chief Engineer for several private environmental engineering Orms during his career. He is a licensed professional engineer and is currently focused on global warming issues facing the planet.