FOXBOROUGH, Mass. – Bill Belichick’s canvas is a 1.3-acre rectangle of FieldTurf, which he paints with a carefully curated roster of talent.
In 17 seasons with the New England Patriots, he has produced four classic masterworks (2001, 2003, 2004, 2014), two pieces of high distinction (2007, 2011) and four more worthy of honorable mention (2006, 2012, 2013, 2015). His latest work, one of the most complex in his career, debuts this evening at Gillette Stadium when the Patriots host the Houston Texans in the AFC Divisional Playoffs.
It’s too soon to tell whether the 2016 Patriots will rank as one of Belichick’s superior compositions, but more so than any group in recent years, the credit for its success or failure will rest squarely on the head coach and his personnel decisions. Yes, Belichick is always responsible for the roster, but over the past year, he has made some of the riskiest and boldest choices of his career.
Had Belichick kept defensive end Chandler Jones and linebacker Jamie Collins – each in the final year of rookie contracts – he would have been free from second guessing.
Instead, he dealt Jones, widely considered the best defensive player on his roster, to Arizona for a draft pick and washed-up guard Jonathan Cooper, who has since been released. In the middle of the season, he made an even-more-shocking deal, shipping Collins – widely considered the next-best defensive player on his roster – to Cleveland for what amounts to a compensation pick (which the team may have received anyway if Collins had walked).
Belichick has cut bait with prominent players before. Lawyer Milloy, Adam Vinatieri, Deion Branch, Asante Samuel, Mike Vrabel, Richard Seymour, Wes Welker, Aqib Talib and Logan Mankins come to mind. One thing all of those players had in common: They had at least played out their rookie deals.
Only once in his first 16 seasons did Belichick walk away from a player who was coming off a Pro Bowl season and still had time on his rookie contract – safety Brandon Meriweather in 2011. This year, he did that twice.
It’s worth noting that Meriweather’s skills had so noticeably diminished that he no trade value. Some would say Jones and Collins have yet to reach their peak. Even considering the Meriweather move, there’s really no precedent for this in Belichick’s tenure. And he did it twice.
“He’s always trying to make our team better, make our staff better, and I’m sure make himself better,” Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels said earlier this week. “Our goal is to try to understand how we have to play the game and try to do what he’s asking us to do each week. He does a good job of identifying the way we need to do it to win. Nobody does it better than he does.”
Despite the fact that Cooper, the seventh overall pick in 2013, never contributed so much as a snap, the Jones trade has yielded some value. The Pats dealt the second-round pick from that trade for two more picks, which brought them offensive lineman Joe Thuney and wide receiver Malcolm Mitchell.
Thuney became the starting left guard and has played nearly every snap this year. Mitchell has had one of the better rookie seasons of a receiver under Belichick, catching 32 passes for 401 yards and four touchdowns. The team also used a chunk of the $7.8 million that was supposed to go to Jones to lure veteran defensive end Chris Long to New England. At this stage of his career, Long is not the complete end that Jones can be, but he has been a strong veteran presence and a valuable member of the rotation at his position.
If the Patriots fail to win, or least reach, the Super Bowl, and the defense bears any culpability, the Collins trade will no doubt be scrutinized for some time to come. But it’s hard to look at the defense’s performance and conclude that the trade hurt New England.
The Pats had their worst defensive game of the season right after the trade. That came against a then-potent Seahawks team that scored 31 points and seemed to benefit from a breakout performance by (now-injured) running back C.J. Prosise. There was miscommunication, blown coverage and the Pats gave up a season-high 31 points.
But in the eight games without Collins, including the Seattle game, the Patriots gave up fewer points (118) than they did with Collins (132). Over the last seven games, they held opponents to an average of 12.4 points, and led the league this season with 15.6 points allowed per game. The defense also forced 14 turnovers after the Collins trade, after taking only nine before the move.
Rational or not, the Collins trade will likely be the first gripe if this team doesn’t find the success its fans are looking for. The Jones trade will be the second. On the other hand, if the Belichick can complete another masterwork that hangs in banner form over Gillette Stadium, then the moves will stand out as two more strokes of genius in the head coach’s accomplished career.
(Dave Brown is a freelance correspondent who covers the Patriots for the Monitor. You can follow him on Twitter @ThatDaveBrown.)