The latest job projections from New Hampshire Employment Security made us think our state will feel like an assisted-living facility before too long. The Silver Tsunami of aging baby boomers will hit and by 2030, a third of our population – a half-million people – will be over 65.
Jobs for home health care aides and nurse practitioners will jump by 35 percent by 2024, physical therapists and physician assistants by 31 percent. There will be jobs for 2,000 more registered nurses and even the demand for personal financial advisers is projected to increase by 36 percent – presumably to help boomers oversee all the money they have saved for retirement.
Think about it. Who is going to fill all those jobs? Many studies confirm that the robust migration of new residents into New Hampshire – boosting our workforce and bringing economic growth from 1960 to 1990 – is long over. The state Office of Energy and Planning estimates that people of workforce age will decrease by 7.5 percent over the next 15 years. The prime working age population (20 to 64) is projected to drop by 50,000 from 2010 to 2030. Older residents are dying, and they are not being replaced by younger workers. Some regions, particularly the North Country, will be hit harder than others. State government has to face up to the impact of dramatic change in our population, old and young, and quickly do something about it.
Downhill demographics – an aging population, a shrinking workforce, a low birth rate, fewer newcomers and continued “out-migration” of young adults – affects economic growth and diminishes tax revenue. Fewer workers means less spending. Meanwhile, forecasters note seniors drive less, lowering fuel tax receipts; their big houses aren’t as appealing to young buyers, potentially impacting property taxes. As boomers retire and unload resources, it could impact income and dividend taxes.
This is an election year. We want to know how candidates for state office intend to convince people to “vote with their feet,” as population experts call it, come to New Hampshire and stay here. We need to reinvigorate our population. Tell us how you would do it: Commuter rail? Better Internet access? More affordable housing? A changed tax structure?
In February, a small group that included business leaders and policy analysts, assembled by longtime House member Rep. Neal Kurk of Weare, produced a strongly worded report on New Hampshire’s demographic challenges and the role of state government. They warned that the “profound” transformation of our population will mean sharp changes in demands for public services and pressure on revenue. “The impact on business tax revenues alone in 2030 could exceed $20 million,” the report said.
We agree with the group’s bottom line – state government has to act now. They suggest that the governor’s office put someone in charge of demographic policy to closely monitor who lives where and why they come and go. A joint legislative committee on population should be formed. Why? Because, as the report points out, public policy choices affect where people choose to live, work and raise the next generation. And that affects New Hampshire’s future.
We are not persuaded that the state needs to fund a review of the economic impact of population change. Much valuable research is ongoing at the New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies and at the Carsey School of Public Policy at UNH – that work caught the attention of Rep. Kurk. We commend him for initiating this thought-provoking assessment of our state’s future. We urge him to use his considerable influence to generate discussion in the State House, and get results.