On the day the New England Patriots clinched a first-round bye, they looked more impregnable than at any point all season. The Patriots have been the most stable force in the NFL all season, even as they have juggled the suspension of Tom Brady, executed the trade of Jamie Collins and withstood the injury of Rob Gronkowski.
With two weeks to go in the regular season, they stand above everyone else. If nothing has stopped them yet, it is difficult to see who or what would.
Sunday evening provided an opportunity for the Patriots to careen. They were playing their nemesis, the Denver Broncos, in the only stadium that has consistently discomforted Brady – he had been 2-7 in Denver in his career, including the loss in last year’s AFC Championship. Behind a defense suddenly playing its best, the Patriots dispatched the Broncos, 16-3, to both clinch the AFC East and greatly endanger the defending Super Bowl champion’s playoff hopes.
The division title provides an occasion for pause, to appreciate how truly different the Patriots under Bill Belichick are. They have won 14 division titles in the 16 years since Brady took over as the Patriots’ quarterback, including the season Brady missed almost all of with shredded knee ligaments. The Patriots have now won 12 games in seven consecutive seasons. Over that span, only eight other teams have done it more than once. (It will become nine if Dallas wins once more.) Just two other teams – Baltimore and Denver – have done so more than twice.
The Patriots keep winning because of the qualities they have shown this season. They can adapt within a season, and they almost always improve over the course of the year. This season, they have grown tougher on both sides of the ball despite losing one of their best players. In three games since Gronkowski was lost for the season with back injury, the Patriots have outscored opponents, 72-36.
The Broncos won last year’s AFC title game primarily because their defense overwhelmed New England’s offensive line. Sunday, the Patriots rushed for 137 yards – 95 of them from Dion Lewis – and held Denver to two sacks and just five total hits on Brady. Von Miller almost singlehandedly ended the Patriots’ season last January. On Sunday, with tackle Marcus Cannon doing most of the work, Miller recorded four tackles and didn’t hit Brady once.
Even with the improved protection, Brady did not greatly improve his personal history at Mile High, completing 16 of 32 passes for 188 yards. But the Patriots proved they are not reliant on Brady alone.
Against a tough opponent on the road, the Patriots showed they can win an ugly, defensive game. Just one month ago, New England’s defense appeared to be a vulnerability. With the weather growing cold and the playoffs drawing near, the Patriots have fixed it.
Holding down the Broncos’ shaky offense doesn’t validate the Patriots’ defense. But it’s the way they’re playing. The unit has become more aggressive and made more big plays. Second-year defensive end Trey Flowers has become a dominant pass rusher, the kind the Patriots seemed to lose when they traded Chandler Jones to the Cardinals this offseason. The Patriots have forced eight turnovers in their past four games, just won fewer than forced in their first 10 games.
No team has bedeviled the Patriots over recent years like the Broncos, and the Patriots will probably not have to worry about them in the playoffs. The 8-6 Broncos now sit outside the playoff picture, a game behind 9-5 Miami for the last wild-card spot. They have to play at Kansas City and against Oakland at home in their final two games.
While Oakland has the right combination – a good quarterback, a dominant offensive line and a fierce pass rush – to challenge the Patriots, New England is clearly the team to beat in the AFC. (Kansas City took a step back by losing to Tennessee at home, proving again that the Chiefs can toggle between excellence and mediocrity on a week-to-week basis.)
For the Patriots, the biggest trouble looms on the distant horizon. The Giants won again Sunday, pushing them to 10-4 and keeping them alive for a bye in the NFC playoffs. The Giants, of course, spoiled two potential Patriots Super Bowls. That’s ancient history now, and rationally it’s only a coincidence at this point. Try telling that to a Patriots fan.
At this stage of the NFL season, though, the Patriots have established themselves as the clear-cut favorite to win the Super Bowl. By now, they know what that feels like.