The three greatest weeks in sports are upon us. And for me, this time of year is not about filling out the perfect bracket.
It’s all about the upsets, the buzzer-beaters and the Cinderella stories. The leave-it-all-out-there mentality. The moments that literally make you crumple up that bracket and toss it in the trash can.
Arguments about the non-conference tilts, RPI and strength of schedule are over. These 64 teams are in and no one can take that away from them.
Everyone is 0-0 and nothing that happened before Sunday, March 12, matters anymore.
It’s one of the very few postseason occasions in sports where those seeds mean nothing more than where you go for the first round and who you play once you get there.
Since most of us will still try and fill out the perfect bracket anyway, here’s a few tips on who I think those Cinderella teams could be and why.
It’s hard to consider the Rams a Cinderella candidate, considering they were ranked in the Top 25 to open the season, but the Atlantic 10 champions enter the tournament as a No. 11 seed.
The A10 has seen considerable success in the NCAA Tournament in recent years, a reason for those in the Ocean State to be optimistic. Eleven different teams in the conference have won at least one game at the Big Dance within the last 20 years.
That being said, only two teams – George Mason and VCU – have advanced to the Final Four in that time frame.
I don’t necessarily think the Rams (24-9) are Phoenix bound, but they’ll be a tough out. Rhode Island is ranked 32nd in Division I defensively, allowing 64.9 points per game and are led by a solid trio of upperclassmen in E.C. Matthews, Hassan Martin and Jared Terrell, who all average double figures.
No. 6 Creighton presents a tough matchup for the Rams. The Bluejays are ranked 19th in the nation in scoring (82.1 points per game) and third in field goal percentage (50.8). They’ve seemingly bounced back from losing star point guard Maurice Watson to a season-ending knee injury/suspension in January. But Creighton is 1-4 when held to 70 points or less.
What happens when a high-powered offense meets a stingy defense? We will find out at 3:30 p.m. on Friday.
The Blue Raiders are the trendiest upset pick of the first round this year – a far cry from the quiet path they took to the Round of 32 a year ago.
After upsetting No. 2 Michigan State as a 15-seed in last year’s tourney, Middle Tennessee gained experience. And expectations come with that experience, something the Blue Raiders did not have when they took down a team that was picked to win the whole damn tournament in 22 percent of ESPN’s 13 million brackets submitted last year.
MTSU (30-4), a No. 12 seed out of Conference USA, will play No. 5 Minnesota on Thursday at 4 p.m. Middle Tennessee was picked in just 2.2 percent of ESPN brackets in last year’s first round, compared to the 44 percent of CBSsports.com bracketologists picking the Blue Raiders over the Golden Gophers (24-9) Thursday.
Minnesota compiled a 7-7 record against teams in the tournament field but was able to overcome a five-game losing streak in mid-January and bounced back with wins in eight of the last 10 games. The Gophers, who average 75.3 points per game, will have to overcome MTSU’s 20th-ranked defense (63.3 points allowed) and find a quick answer for senior forward JaCorey Williams (17.3 ppg).
Personally, it took me about 0.5 seconds Sunday to decide on Middle Tennessee over Minnesota. I’ve got the Blue Raiders taking down No. 4 Butler, too.
The Ivy League is always tough to predict and almost always out-performs those predictions come tournament time.
Princeton, a 12 seed, is no exception this year and enters the dance having won 19 straight and the inaugural Ivy League tournament championship.
The Tigers (23-6) are ranked 10th in the nation defensively, allowing 61.6 points per game and they rank 27th in scoring margin (plus-10.6).
The offense is pretty balanced with four players averaging double figures and no player averaging more than 14 points per game. The defense is what could help the Tigers win a few more games, though.
It’s worth noting that Princeton’s first-round matchup, No. 5 Notre Dame, is 10-0 against the Ivy League since 1998. The last Ivy League team to beat the Irish? The Tigers in 1977.
If Princeton gets through Notre Dame, a possible second-round matchup with fourth-seeded West Virginia looms. Count me in for that one.
North Dakota, Northwestern, UC Davis, Northern Kentucky and Jacksonville State are all making their first NCAA Tournament appearance.
Northwestern, one of the original Division I teams, is representing the Big 10 despite being blown out by Wisconsin in the semifinals of the conference tournament.
The Wildcats (23-11) stole an eight seed and will play No. 9 Vanderbilt in the opening round Thursday at 4:30 p.m. Although Northwestern is riding a history high, I wouldn’t invest too much in the Wildcats making a deep run in the tournament.
They’ve lost seven of their last 12 games after a 15-2 start and have posted a meager 5-7 record against teams in the tournament field. Sure, the story is nice and the historic implications of it all are not lost on me. I’m just not sold on the Wildcats making any more history this year.
North Dakota (22-9) was handed a tough road when it received a No. 15 seed and a first-round meeting with second-seeded Arizona, the Pac 12 champions. The Fighting Sioux shouldn’t be counted out yet, though.
North Dakota won the Big Sky tournament and have been tested plenty this season. The Sioux are 3-0 in overtime games and have won 10 of their last 11 overall. Quinton Hooker (19.0 points per game) is no joke and he’s one of three players to average double figures this season for North Dakota.
Arizona (30-4) is playing its best basketball right now, though, and that’s bad news for anyone hoping for an upset. The Wildcats just won back-to-back games in the Pac 12 tourney over Oregon and UCLA, who both earned No. 3 seeds. Arizona comes into the tournament ranked second in RPI, behind only Villanova (31-3), and played the 21st-toughest schedule in the nation this season, according to CBSsports.com. In comparison, North Dakota was ranked 304th out of 351 teams for strength of schedule.
All that being said, here’s my Final Four: Villanova, Arizona, Kansas and North Carolina.
How those teams will get to the big stage in Phoenix – and who they’ll have to beat to get there? I’m not sure. But I know it’s going to be fun.
(Michelle Berthiaume can be reached at 369-3338, mberthiaume@cmonitor.com or on Twitter @MonitorMichelle.)