Last week, right before the Round of 32 tipped off in the NCAA men’s basketball Tournament, I made a mistake.
I wanted to proclaim, and prove, that this year’s tournament was boring. That’s where the mistake started. It got worse when I wasted a half hour of my life searching for evidence to support my theory and found this fun fact – this year was the first time since 2007 that all of the top-four seeds in each region advanced out of the first round.
It was good evidence, but after the Round of 32, the tournament stopped being so boring. Wisconsin upset defending-champion Villanova, Michigan slipped past No. 2 Louisville, seventh-seeded South Carolina toppled perennial power Duke and No. 11 Xavier blew out No. 3 Florida State.
Maybe that excitement will carry over
into the rest of the tournament. Maybe not. Anything can happen in March. That being said, here’s my best shot at predicting the Sweet 16.
AT KANSAS CITY
(3) Oregon vs.
(7) Michigan, 7:09 p.m.
No one wants to root against Michigan at this point. The seventh-seeded Wolverines haven’t lost since their plane skidded off a runway in Ypsilanti, Mich., one day before the Big 10 Tournament. Some may claim divine intervention, but the truth is this team is just solid. Between point guard Derrick Walton Jr., long and lanky forward D.J. Wilson and talented role players like Moritz Wagner and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Michigan has proved to be a tough matchup in the one-and-done setting. But Oregon junior Dillon Brooks was born for the big moment, and there have been few moments bigger than this one in his storied collegiate career that will likely end when the Ducks’ tournament run does. The Wolverines have not faced a bigger offensive threat than Brooks during their seven-game win streak and may find him to be a difficult matchup, as most teams do. MY PICK: Michigan.
AT SAN JOSE
(1) Gonzaga vs.
(4) West Virginia, 7:39 p.m.
If I had to pick one upset for the Sweet 16, this would be it. There may be no hotter team left than the Mountaineers, who have won eight of the last 10 and have a tourney-tested roster. On the other hand, Gonzaga’s 20-point win in the first round was closer than it sounds and a timely technical foul aided a narrow second-round victory over Northwestern. If the Bulldogs sleep through the first half again, it will be tough to get back into this one against Press Virginia. MY PICK: West Virginia.
AT KANSAS CITY
(4) Purdue vs.
(1) Kansas, 9:39 p.m.
The Jayhawks showed exactly why they can be so dangerous with a 20-point victory over Michigan State on Sunday. Kansas had four players score in double figures and really turned it on late in the second half to pull away for good. The Boilermakers struggled late in the Round of 32 with Iowa State’s guard-heavy strategy, and the Jayhawks can do the same thing, but with superior guards. Plus, Purdue is a one-man-show with Caleb Swanigan starring, which might be trouble against balanced Kansas. Being about 40 miles from Allen Fieldhouse won’t hurt KU, either. MY PICK: Kansas.
AT SAN JOSE
(11) Xavier vs.
(2) Arizona, 10:09 p.m.
If No. 11 Xavier were to pull off its third straight upset, it would be the seventh time in tournament history that a No. 11 seed advanced to the Elite Eight. Standing in Xavier’s way is a red-hot Arizona team that’s all too familiar with what it takes to beat the Musketeers when it matters. It’s the second time in three years that the two teams will play in the Sweet 16 with the Wildcats winning the last meeting in 2015. Arizona is also looking to get back to the Final Four for the first time since 2001 and it’s safe to assume that weighs heavily on this year’s team and Coach Sean Miller, who fell to Wisconsin in the Elite Eight two years in a row before being bounced by Wichita State in the first round a year ago. MY PICK: Arizona.
AT MEMPHIS
(4) Butler vs.
(1) North Carolina, 7:09 p.m.
Butler is no stranger to the NCAA Tournament, but if it comes down to overall experience, the Tar Heels should be heavily favored. Not only is UNC looking to get back to the championship game for the second year in a row, but the Heels also played a pressure-packed schedule this season that CBSsports.com rated the 11th-strongest in the country. The most important thing for Carolina to do in this matchup is not overlook it. It’s easy to worry about a looming meeting with Kentucky or UCLA in the Elite Eight, but it’s not something anyone in the UNC locker room should do until the Butler business is handled. The Heels were almost caught sleeping by eighth-seeded Arkansas on Sunday and they can’t afford to make the same mistake against a talented and experienced squad like Butler. MY PICK: North Carolina.
AT NEW YORK
(3) Baylor vs.
(7) South Carolina, 7:29 p.m.
The Gamecocks aren’t in Greenville anymore. Seventh-seeded South Carolina was gifted first- and second-round games about 100 miles from its Columbia, S.C., campus and the not-so-neutral advantage certainly contributed to wins over No. 10 Marquette and No. 2 Duke. Now taking on third-seeded Baylor at Madison Square Garden, the Gamecocks will have their work cut out for them in their first-ever Sweet 16 appearance. The Bears seem to have a pretty clear road to the South Region final, but that might worry Baylor fans more than anything. Upset in the first round of back-to-back NCAA Tournaments, the Bears aren’t exactly known for winning games they’re supposed to win. MY PICK: Baylor.
AT MEMPHIS
(3) UCLA vs.
(2) Kentucky, 9:39 p.m.
The second installment of this Blue Blood Bash can’t possibly be as exciting as the first one, right? UCLA’s 97-92 win at Kentucky in December was one of the best games of the regular season and the stakes are even higher now. If anything, it’s going to be a showdown filled with plenty of NBA lottery talent. Kentucky’s Malik Monk and De’Aaron Fox were both projected as top-12 picks in Chad Ford’s latest 2017 mock draft for ESPN, while UCLA’s Lonzo Ball has teetered between the No. 1 or No. 2 pick since the beginning of the season. On top of the casual basketball fan being interested in this one, Celtics fans should also watch closely. MY PICK: UCLA.
AT NEW YORK
(8) Wisconsin vs.
(4) Florida, 9:59 p.m.
Yeah, I’m sure everyone was dreaming about this Sweet 16 matchup when they filled out those brackets a week ago. The Badgers, criminally under-seeded by the selection committee, have already taken out Goliath, so they should have no issues eliminating the Gators. A confident and talented group with national championship game experience sees a clear path to another title game. That’s a scary combination. MY PICK: Wisconsin.
(Michelle Berthiaume can be reached at 369-3338, mberthiaume@cmonitor.com or on Twitter @MonitorMichelle.)