A new non-partisan survey indicates Gov. Chris Sununu is leading his Democratic challenger Molly Kelly by ten percentage points with just under three weeks to go until Election Day.
The poll numbers, from the Saint Anselm College Survey Center, were one of two sets of metrics released Wednesday in the battle for the corner office.
The other set of figures, looking at each campaign’s fundraising, showed that Sununu has more cash on hand in the closing weeks of the campaign. But the report also showed Kelly outraised the governor in the weeks since the September 11 primary.
Sununu led Kelly 48.6 percent to 38.6 percent among registered voters, with Libertarian nominee Jilletta Jarvis just under 1 percent. Nearly 12 percent of those questioned were undecided, according to the poll.
The poll indicated Sununu tops Kelly by an even larger margin – 46.5 percent to 31.9 percent – among independent or undeclared voters. As expected, nearly 90 percent of Republicans backed Sununu, the state’s first GOP governor in a dozen years. And nearly 80 percent of Democrats supported Kelly, a former five-term state senator.
Nearly 38 percent of those questioned in the poll were independent voters, with 31.9 percent Republicans and 30.6 percent Democrats.
There’s also a gender divide, with Sununu leading by 22 points among men. Kelly has a much more modest two point edge among women.
“Republicans traditionally do far worse with women voters,” New Hampshire Institute of Politics executive director Neil Levesque said. “What this poll indicates is that Sununu is actually doing pretty well with female voters, but definitely very, very, strong with male voters.”
Levesque also noted that “voters in both parties are highly motivated, with over 90 percent of Democrats and Republicans extremely likely to vote.”
Levesque pointed out that while Sununu holds a 10-point lead, he’s under 50 percent support. Levesque predicted that “this race will likely tighten as Kelly picks up uncommitted Democrats and Independents down the stretch.”
The survey, conducted Oct. 10-15, has a sampling error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. It’s the first live operator poll conducted in the general election race for governor.
The Sununu and Kelly gubernatorial campaigns also filed their latest fundraising reports on Wednesday. The Kelly campaign highlighted that they outraised the Sununu campaign during the Sept.11-Oct.15 filing period by around $235,000. But the Sununu campaign pointed to the cash-on-hand figures, which indicate the governor has slightly more than a $200,000 advantage over Kelly when it comes to the amount of cash in the bank.
The Saint Anselm College poll indicated executive councilor and Democratic nominee Chris Pappas topping Republican nominee Eddie Edwards 44 percent to 36 percent in the 1st Congressional District race to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter. The survey also indicated three-term Democratic incumbent Annie Kuster has a wide lead over GOP challenger and state Rep. Steve Negron, 49 percent to 22 percent, in the 2nd District race.
The most recent congressional fundraising filings indicate Pappas with a three-to-one cash on hand advantage over Edwards as of October 1. And Kuster entered the month with $1.93 million cash on hand, compared to just $33,225 for Negron.