As news trickled in last week about Tom Brady’s contract extension, it was difficult to sort out exactly what the Patriots and their quarterback had done. What was immediately evident was that Brady and the Patriots had structured an unusual contract that removed the team’s ability to apply the franchise tag, but did not give Brady the guaranteed money and long-term security he was looking for.
It wasn’t until two days after the “extension” was first announced that the biggest piece of the puzzle finally became public: In addition to a $1.75 million base salary in 2019, Brady had received $19.75 million in bonuses prorated over three seasons.
That detail helped to put everything in perspective and gave some insight into exactly what this deal means for Brady and the Patriots. For one thing, it does nothing to extend Brady’s time with New England. If the parties fail to negotiate a new contract by the end of the NFL’s “league year” (March 18, 2020), then the final two years of the contract will void. And this is where that signing bonus becomes a big factor. If the contract voids, Brady becomes a free agent, and the Patriots will have to carry the remaining $13 million in signing bonus as dead money on their 2020 salary cap, even if he retires or plays for another team.
Without question, that is a significant dead-money hit for the Patriots. Since 2011, New England has not had a dead-money hold of larger than $7.5 million, according to Spotrac.com, which does not track these details prior to 2011. That $7.5 million cap hit in 2014 was not planned, but rather a consequence of cutting Aaron Hernandez.
Even though Brady did not get exactly what he wanted, he did get a pay raise for 2019 while significantly improving his bargaining position for a renegotiation after the season. That sizable dead-money hit looming in 2020 and the removal of the franchise tag highly incentivize the Patriots to give Brady a more-favorable deal before March 18. The franchise tag would have allowed the Pats to keep Brady on big-money, one-year deals in 2020 and 2021, but taking that option off table gives Brady more leverage to push for a multi-year deal with more security.
From the Patriots’ perspective, this structure gave the team some cap relief for 2019 and the ability to evaluate the 42-year-old Brady for one more season before committing to what might be the final contract of his career. If Brady fails to play up to expectations, the team could opt to eat the $13 million next year and move forward with another quarterback. That means Brady is effectively on a one-year “show-me” deal for this season.
“It’s really the reality for most guys in the NFL,” Brady told reporters at training camp last week. “I don’t want to think I’m any different than anyone else. Football is a tough business. It’s a production business. I’m ready to go this year and that’s really what matters. That’s where my focus is. It’s a unique situation I’m in. I’m in my 20th year with the same team. I’m 42 years old, so pretty much uncharted territory I think for everybody. I’m going to go out there and do the best I can this year and see what happens.”
Brady is indeed in uncharted territory. Not since Warren Moon started 10 games for the Seahawks in 1998 has a 42-year-old been a regular starter in the NFL. The Patriots have had two 43-year-old quarterbacks on their roster during the Bill Belichick era – Doug Flutie (2005) and Vinny Testaverde (2006) – but both backed up Brady and neither threw more than 10 passes. Since the merger, no quarterback older than 42 has thrown more than the 258 passes Moon had with the Seahawks in ’98. Testaverde, at age 44, threw 172 passes for the 2007 Panthers (and started six games), but there is no simply no test case in NFL history for a quarterback being his team’s regular starter at age 43, let alone 44 or 45, the age Brady says he wants play to.
In the end, the Patriots gave Brady all the bargaining power for 2020, but he still has to prove he’s the right man for the job after 2019.
(Dave Brown is a freelance correspondent who covers the Patriots for the Monitor. You can follow him on Twitter @ThatDaveBrown.)