Bernie Sanders has promised to win the California presidential primary in March, but home-state Sen. Kamala Harris is defending her turf – putting the two on a collision course in a state both see as a critical steppingstone to the White House.
Sanders’s campaign advisers rank California among what they call the crucial “first five” contests. By making a strong showing in those states – Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and California – they believe Sanders can establish himself as the dominant candidate in the crowded Democratic field by early March. On Thursday, he rolled out a proposal to combat climate change, a major plank of his campaign, in a Northern California community ravaged by wildfire.
Harris, meanwhile, has locked down endorsements from most of the state’s Democratic elected officials and recently announced having 10 paid staffers in California. Both candidates are in the state this week to address Democratic Party leaders in San Francisco.
But investing in California, the biggest prize in the presidential sweepstakes with 495 delegates, remains a gamble for both. It’s far from clear that the effort will be money well spent if the candidates don’t place near the top in the earlier states and if their campaigns are flagging by the time Californians start voting. (Mail-in ballots start going out Feb. 3 for the March 3 primary.) And in a state where most campaigning happens on the airwaves, having a grassroots network in San Francisco or Los Angeles may not save a candidate who is already sinking.
At this point, no other Democrats are betting on California like Harris and Sanders. Former Vice President Joe Biden has five staff members in the state, with several focused on fundraising. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren has no paid staff but is building a robust volunteer corps. Sanders, a Vermont senator, has 11 staffers on his payroll.
The problem for candidates: “How do you budget for a California primary when you don’t know how you’ve done in the first four states?” asked longtime Democratic strategist Bill Carrick, who is based in Los Angeles.
“The first four states are incredibly consequential to who actually ends up a contender” in California, he said.
Still, Sanders’s campaign could spend $25 million or more chasing votes, a sign of his campaign’s commitment to the strategy. To manage the campaign in sprawling California, Sanders’s campaign has broken up the state into five regions and started to build organizations in those areas. The idea is to target places like the Los Angeles region and the San Francisco Bay Area as states within a state, honing in on local concerns. On a recent swing, he discussed immigration in San Diego, homelessness in Los Angeles and housing in San Francisco, where a typical one-bedroom apartment rents for $3,500.
In each area “we look at it like it’s Iowa, like it’s New Hampshire,” said campaign spokesman Joe Calvello.
Harris’s campaign is relying on lawmakers backing her candidacy to amplify her message in their home districts. They’re also helping raise money for her – she sent out a plea for donations Tuesday, warning that Sanders has raised $45 million this year and has a large grassroots organization returning from his 2016 presidential campaign.