New Hampshire could see more COVID-19 deaths than previously planned for as it begins to re-open, according to the latest adjustment of an influential University of Washington prediction model.
The university’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation warned on Wednesday that the Granite State’s death total could land around 424 by Aug. 4, as retail stores and restaurants begin to reopen and social distancing eases. Previously that model, whose state-by-state numbers have fluctuated, has measured closer to 349 deaths.
As of Wednesday, New Hampshire’s death total was 149.
Asked at a press conference Wednesday about an earlier projection of more than 900 deaths in New Hampshire, Gov. Chris Sununu said “it could happen.”
“That’s a very dire number, but it could happen, which is why we have to be extremely careful,” he said. “I know a lot of people want the economy just to open up quickly.”
But Sununu argued that the models were not hard indicators and said that the state is basing its re-opening approach on the data at hand, which includes low hospitalization rates.
New Hampshire announced eight more deaths due to COVID-19 Wednesday, seven of which were at long term care facilities.
The deaths were announced even as the number of new cases seems to have leveled off.
The state reported 63 new cases, roughly the same as has been reported every day for the past week. About 3.3% of the tests administered were positive.
State officials have attempted to ramp up tests in recent days. The number of tests carried out by state and private labs has averaged 1,478 a day, Department of Health and Human Services Commissioner Lori Shibinette said Wednesday.
About 4% of cases have been fatal. About 45% of tested patients have recovered, and about 10% have been hospitalized.
“Every death is unacceptable,” Shibinette said earlier this week. “The data needs to inform how we strategize and develop solutions.”
DHHS is also focusing on boosting testing in long term care facilities, which have experienced a number of outbreaks. About 1,500 residents and 500 staff have been tested so far, comprising 30-40% of the state’s total nursing home population, Shibinette said.
“Since the beginning of COVID-19, we’ve worked hard to develop an aggressive containment strategy — stop it at the door, screen everybody who comes in, test the entire unit if someone comes back positive,” Shibinette said.
The state hopes to have tested everyone in a long term care facility within the next two weeks, Shibinette said, two days after White House coronavirus taskforce coordinator Deborah Birx told governors that should be a priority.
Concord Hospital is one of 13 hospitals across the state that have been approved for a preliminary supply of remdesivir, an experimental drug from Gilead Sciences that may help to treat patients with COVID-19, Shibinette announced.
The state received 400 vials of the drug, which has not received FDA approval but has been given emergency clearance to be used on COVID-19 patients after some promising studies.
Hospitals have been instructed to follow CDC guidelines, which stipulate that the drug should only be administered to adults and children in the hospital with the most severe respiratory symptoms.
The New Hampshire Attorney General’s office is “working with” several businesses that have flouted New Hampshire’s shut down order guidelines, said Gov. Chris Sununu Wednesday. But the governor declined to detail specifics on the violations or the businesses committing them.
“There are definitely a few cases out there – not many, but there are definitely a few cases cases out there of individuals or individual businesses that are are pushing our guidelines,” Sununu said. “And again, we’ll work with those folks. They’re few and far between, and we’re happy to work with them on an individual basis.”
Retail stores, hair salons and golf courses all opened Monday in a limited capacity. Sununu has argued in the past that he prefers for the state to negotiate with business owners rather than bring direct enforcement action when businesses commit violations.
“We always want to work with individuals as opposed to coming down with a heavy hand, and I think that department in the state as a whole has really handled the situation very, very well,” Sununu said.
Sununu pointed to guidelines issued by the Attorney General’s office to local law enforcement and said that the Department of Justice has been in contact with police forces on enforcement “on a weekly basis.”
He did not elaborate on what steps might be taken by the state against the violators.
Truck traffic has returned to New Hampshire’s turnpike system but car traffic is still only half of its pre-COVID level, reflecting the fact that far fewer people are commuting to work.
A total of 1.23 million trips by cars and trucks were made through the state’s E-ZPass system in the week ending May 10, according to the state Department of Transportation. That’s about 25% higher than the low point seen in the first week of April, when just 933,000 trips were reported, and represents the fifth week in a row that the number has increased.
However, the total is still 1 million trips below the level in February and March due to the fact that car trips have not recovered. Trips by cars totaled 977,000 last week, half of the 1.9 million trips that were recorded during most weeks of February.
Truck trips, on the other hand, are back to earlier levels, with 116,000 trips last week, almost exactly the number reported in most weeks of February and early March. They never declined as much as car trips; the lowest number of truck trips was 102,000 in mid-April.
New Hampshire colleges and universities are planning a variety of virtual celebrations for graduates while postponing in-person gatherings until the threat of the coronavirus subsides.
The University of New Hampshire postponed Saturday’s commencement ceremony, with no new date selected yet. It will be holding a celebration online that morning. A similar event is planned at Saint Anselm College on Saturday.
Elsewhere, Colby-Sawyer College rescheduled its ceremony for Aug. 8, while Keene State College’s new date is Oct. 3. Dartmouth College pushed its in-person commencement to June 2021, but will host a virtual celebration June 14.
The annual Jericho ATV Festival, scheduled July 31 to Aug. 1 has been canceled because of coronavirus concerns.
The festival draws thousands of riders. It’s been held for 10 years at Jericho Mountain State Park in Berlin.
(Material from the Associated Press was used in this report.)