With New Hampshire’s primary just days away, a new public opinion survey indicates the Democratic gubernatorial race remains all knotted up between state Senate majority leader Dan Feltes and executive councilor Andrew Volinsky – with a high percentage of undecided voters.
Volinsky narrowly edged Feltes 38%-36% among likely Democratic primary voters questioned in an on-line Granite State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. But Volinsky’s two-point edge was within the survey’s sampling error, meaning the race is basically all tied up. Four percent said they’d vote for another candidate, with 22% saying they were undecided.
Political leanings mattered between the two – Volinsky toped Feltes by 17-points among self-described liberal voters, while Feltes led Volinsky by 20 points among self-described moderates, according to the survey.
Democratic primary voters have become more familiar with both candidates, but large numbers still have not formed an opinion of the two contenders hoping to take on Republican Gov. Chris Sununu in November’s general election.
The percentage of people who didn’t know enough about Volinsky to form an opinion has gone from 72% in February to 44% now – and went from 71% to 35% for Feltes.
Sununu’s facing a longshot primary challenge from the right from Franklin city councilor Karen Testerman. The survey indicates the 2-term governor topping Testerman 82%-15%.
U.S. Rep. Annie Kuster this week became the first member of New Hampshire’s all-Democratic congressional delegation to endorse a candidate in the gubernatorial primary. The 4-term representative in the state’s Second Congressional District backed Feltes.
“As we recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, we need to ensure that no Granite State family is left behind. And Dan has looked out for working people and working families his entire life, from his time as a legal aid attorney to serving in our state Senate,” the congresswoman from Hopkinton said in a video endorsing Feltes.
Kuster also cited his support for reproductive rights, his work in the Senate to lower prescription drug prices and to push for investments in clean energy and education funding.
This is far from the first time Kuster’s weighed in on a Democratic gubernatorial primary. She endorsed then-executive councilor Colin Van Ostern in 2016 and former state Sen. Molly Kelly in 2018. Both candidates won the nomination – but both lost to Sununu in the general election.
The UNH survey indicates in head-to-head matchups, Sununu was ahead of Feltes by 24 points and Volinsky by 26 points in hypothetical general election showdowns.
Overall, Sununu enjoys a 70%-27% approval/disapproval rating across all political spectrums. According to the survey, 94% of Republicans, 77% of independents, and even 47% of Democrats gave Sununu a thumbs up on the job he’s doing steering New Hampshire.
The survey also indicated that just over three-quarters of perspective voters approve of how he’s been steering the state’s efforts combating the coronavirus pandemic.
This week Sununu went up with the first TV commercial of his 2020 re-election campaign – and it spotlights the governor’s coronavirus response and thanks Granite Staters for their work responding to the crisis. The campaign says the ad will be up on air through Election Day in November and will run on cable TV and WMUR, which is the only major commercial TV station in the state.
The advertisement – using black and white photos and a music track but no announcer – showcases Sununu, Commissioner of Health and Human Services Lori Shibinette, state epidemiologist Dr. Benjamin Chan, other members of the state’s task force on coronavirus, National Guard members, and regular Granite Staters.
Last week the New Hampshire Democratic Party went up with their first ad this cycle targeting Sununu. The digital spot, which started running ahead of President Donald Trump’s campaign visit in New Hampshire last Friday, continues the state party’s longtime messaging that ties the governor to the president.
The announcer charges that “Sununu’s loyalty to Donald Trump hurts New Hampshire families” and uses the now familiar audio clip of Sununu saying “I’m a Trump guy through and through.”
The ad ends with the announcer emphasizing that Sununu’s “loyalty to Donald Trump comes at our expense.”
The state party told the Monitor that they were spending 5-figures to run the ad on YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram, and said that the commercial may hit the TV airwaves in the coming weeks.
The UNH survey indicates Bryant ‘Corky’ Messner leading Ret. Brigadier Gen. Don Bolduc 52%-31% in the Republican U.S. Senate primary. While Bolduc’s the native-born Granite Stater, Messner enjoys the president’s endorsement and thanks to his advantage in campaign cash, has been able to greatly outspend Bolduc to run TV ads. The survey indicates 17% of likely GOP primary voters remain undecided.
The winner of the Republican primary will face off in November against Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, a former 3-term governor. And the survey indicates that the eventual GOP nominee will be the clear underdog against Shaheen, who’s running for a third 6-year term representing New Hampshire in the U.S. Senate.
The survey indicates Shaheen topping Bolduc by 16 points and Messner by 18 points in potential general election matchups.