The U.S. National Weather Service, based in Gray, Maine, predicted late Saturday afternoon that Hurricane Henri will fizzle to a thunderstorm when it sweeps into Concord sometime between noon and 2 p.m. on Sunday.
Wind speeds are expected to be 30 miles per hour, with gusts up to 50 mph, said Derek Schroeder, a forecaster in Gray, Sunday afternoon and evening. But with only an inch or two of rain expected, major flooding should not pose a problem in Concord and surrounding towns and cities.
“The amount of rain would not be a concern,” Schroeder said by phone from Gray. “We could get heavy downpours for 30 minutes at a time, and multiple rounds of that will increase flooding, but the overall projection of rain falling is below what we would consider for flash flooding to happen.”
Schroeder said the tropical storm, which reached hurricane status Saturday morning, would likely be downgraded by the time it reached New Hampshire. If it kept force, it would’ve been the first to hit New England in 30 years. It was due to reach Long Island, N.Y., Saturday night before whacking Connecticut and possibly Rhode Island with sustained winds of 50 to 65 miles per hour and gusts up to 75.
A category 1 hurricane produces winds of at least 74 mph. That hasn’t happened in New England since Hurricane Bob 30 years ago, on Aug. 19, 1991. The storm killed 15 people nationwide but none in New Hampshire, where it caused thousands of coastal residents to flee their homes and knocked out power to tens of thousands more.
Henri will move at a slow pace and linger, with the storm producing periods of rain in Concord stretching to Monday, and possibly hounding Maine with more rain through Tuesday morning.
New Englanders began preparing on Friday, as Henri spun off the coast of Georgia with an uncertain path that threatened to come ashore at Cape Cod, 800 miles to the north.
Officials had predicted Henri could hit the Connecticut coast sometime Sunday afternoon, or perhaps take a different path and land in Rhode Island or Eastern Massachusetts instead.
Wind speeds will weaken as Henri moves into colder New England waters, producing what’s called a tropical storm.
“It may impact the shore with heavy rain as it moves into Concord area afternoon,” Schroeder said. “There may quite possibly be torrential rain at times, and with this humid tropical air mass, we’re looking at heavy rainfall in spots, but not the flash flooding.”