New Hampshire’s population grew slightly over the previous year but it was due entirely to people moving into the state, as COVID-19’s toll contributed to a long-standing imbalance between births and deaths.
“More people died than were born in New Hampshire last year, just as in the four preceding years,” wrote Ken Johnson, senior demographer with UNH’s Carsey School, after looking at the Census Bureau’s annual estimate of population changes that was released Tuesday. “COVID was a primary cause of the uptick in deaths, but as … New Hampshire’s aging population, small cohorts of child-bearing age women, and low fertility had already caused natural decrease before COVID.”
The only reason the state’s overall population didn’t decline was the number of people moving here, according to estimates by the Census Bureau and the state. New arrivals mostly came from other states although Johnson noted “there was also modest immigration to the state” from outside the country.
The Census Bureau estimated that the state population grew from 1.337 million to 1.389 million between July 2020 and July 2021, an increase of less than 1%. Detailed analysis for New Hampshire’s population changes are still being compiled by the state, Johnson said, although the general picture of what happened is clear.
New Hampshire is not alone in this slow-growth pattern. Between July 2020 and July 2021 the nation overall had the lowest rate of annual population gain in history, barely 1%, while the number of deaths exceeded births in 25 states.
Nationally, deaths were at a record high of 3.4 million – about 2 ½ times the population of New Hampshire – while births were at the lowest level since 1979, even though there are more women of childbearing age.
Four states – Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi and New Mexico – had both a natural population decline and more out-migration than in-migration.
New England has been one of the slowest growing regions in the country for decades, rivaled only by portions of the Midwest. New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine have the three oldest average populations of any state.
