As a Granite Stater, it is inevitable that President Donald Trump’s landmark One Big Beautiful Bill Act will impact the lives of my neighbors, including myself.
The massive bill encapsulates many provisions that have profound impacts, such as those that are generally positive for the future of New Hampshire. Middle income families will save around $2,200 dollars annually in federal taxes, including some of those in the bottom 40%. Low income individuals in our state’s rural areas may cheer for the expanded Child Tax Credit, which is bound to aid working families with children.
No federal tax on tips and overtime through 2028 are a win for hospitality and retail workers, many whom earn very little and depend on additional sources of income. Our beloved seniors will also benefit from no longer needing to be taxed for Social Security. And auto loan interest deductions will encourage new auto buyers to purchase U.S. made vehicles, at a time when China vigorously increases its foreign manufacturing scale.
But with all these wonderful benefits, there are also a lot of questions under the “beautiful” title.
Some 12,000 Granite Staters may lose Medicaid coverage due to work requirements, which exclude pregnant women, underage individuals and those with disabilities. And while such policies are popular amongst nearly three-quarters of the American population, similar policies in the southern states of Arkansas and Georgia ended as a logistical flop.
In Georgia, the state paid nearly $86 million in administration costs for just 7,500 enrollees, an antithesis to fiscal responsibility and halting inefficiency. Arkansas was also unsuccessful, with over 18,000 hard-working, eligible individuals losing coverage due to lengthy paperwork, a lack of internet access and unanswered phone calls. In the end, a federal judge intervened and blocked the law, all while the state’s employment grew by a net zero and spent millions.
So, how can we expect this to work for our state?
New Hampshire has already pursued a similar program in 2018, and we ended up with $6 million less on ineffective outreach and compliance systems before Gov. Chris Sununu intervened. Still, supporters of the Medicaid reforms argue that the program shall remain viable for the most vulnerable populations and not others. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act will enforce states’ to renew and increase oversight over Medicaid rolls, which includes shifting the fiscal burden of covering illegal immigrants to states that chose to cover such individuals, particularly those like California and Illinois.
Furthermore, the bill presents SNAP reforms that may remove up to 15,000 individuals from eligibility in New Hampshire, while energy efficiency tax credits are being eliminated. To note, these “liberal” policies not only helped countless low and middle-income individuals with energy costs but also bolstered domestic American energy independence, which GOP lawmakers always vie to credit.
Whatever energy we can produce in the United States is critical, particularly when our adversaries are heightening their militaries and foreign threats. And due to the energy efficiency credit cuts, New Hampshire could lose over 2,600 jobs by 2035, according to Energy Innovation, including over $42 million in private sector investments. This is not moving our state in the right direction.
On the other hand, if you appreciate increased spending for the military, this bill is your jackpot. It includes a significant boost in spending focused on weapon acquisition, shipbuilding, domestic tank manufacturing and missile defense systems. It also allocates funds for programs meant to improve the lives of service members and their families, with benefits such as Basic Allowance for Housing (BAH) and affordable child care assistance. Republican lawmakers also chose to encompass a tripled ICE budget for all deportation and detention needs, though some moderates question the urgency and sustainability of such policies.
At the end of the day, depending on one’s profession or circumstances, this act might help you, hurt you or do a little of both.
But spending $3.4 trillion on a bill projected to grow the GDP by a mere 1.2%, as estimated by the Tax Foundation, is a questionable gamble — not to mention quite a costly one.
President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act does indeed put more money back in the pockets of everyday Americans, as Sen. Dan Innis aptly noted, but the million dollar question is whether this will be the case in five, ten or even fifteen years from now. As policy expert Drew Cline from the Josiah Bartlett Center cautioned, “We are spending and borrowing at crisis levels when we don’t have a crisis. This is not sustainable.”
Moving forward, our leaders should prioritize balancing short-term wins with long-term priorities to ensure that we as a nation eliminate inept spending, fund productive programs and strive towards a solid economy.
Piotr Kukula lives in Bedford.