Support for Chris Pappas as New Hampshire’s next U.S. senator is ebbing.
For the first time, polling from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center found that the Republican favorite, John E. Sununu, could have an edge in their potential matchup this fall. Sununu led Pappas, 45% to 43%, among survey respondents in an Aug. 26 report.
Both parties are courting the seat that will soon be vacated by retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. The competitive seat could prove key to whether Democrats or Republicans hold a majority in the U.S. Senate for the second half of President Donald Trump’s term.
Pappas at first appeared the heir-apparent for Shaheen’s seat, building on four terms in Congress. Campaigning across the state, he has highlighted big-ticket issues like political corruption, affordability and the housing crisis.
Those who back Pappas, like Concord Mayor Byron Champlin, cite his record in Washington. The UNH poll identified that 32% of his likely voters listed past experience as their “most important reason” for supporting him.
“Chris has the experience and know-how to get things done,” Champlin said in an endorsement video for Pappas on Thursday. “Chris knows how to reach across the aisle and reach consensus when it’s important.”
But Pappas’s progressive challenger, Exeter scientist and Democratic Socialists of America member Karishma Manzur, is steadily closing the gap in the Democratic primary.
Manzur’s momentum echoes that of progressives nationwide, who are seeking to topple Democrats seen as centrist or part of the political establishment. They’re campaigning on populist agendas like Medicare for All, as well as advocating against U.S. support for Israel in the midst of its war with Hamas.
By contrast, most Manzur supporters listed her policies (27%) and politics or ideology (22%) as their most important reason for backing her, according to the UNH Survey Center.
Pappas led Manzur by 43 percentage points in January. That lead has narrowed to just 13 percentage points in the UNH poll.
“I am honored to have the support of people across New Hampshire,” Manzur said in a statement, calling her campaign a “true grassroots effort.” Pappas’s campaign did not respond to the Monitor’s request for comment.
The Republican primary pits two former senators against each other. John E. Sununu, who held this same seat for one term before losing to Shaheen in 2008, touts his work on privacy rights and cutting taxes and regulations. He has spent his time out of public office working and serving on boards in the private sector.
Scott Brown, who represented Massachusetts in the Senate from 2010 to 2013 and was an ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa during Trump’s first term, draws on his military and diplomatic experience.
Both live in Rye and espouse similar views on popular Republican agenda items such as birthright citizenship, requiring proof of citizenship for voting in U.S. elections and opposing letting transgender girls play school sports. They’ve both criticized Trump and have sought to stress their autonomy from the president.
Sununu maintains a strong lead, 60% to 20%, over Brown in the primary, according to the UNH poll.
Voters in both parties can cast their ballots on Sept. 8.
