Follow the numbers to a House majority
New Hampshire Democrats have a real opportunity to win back the State House this November. But taking advantage of that opportunity requires more than a favorable political environment. It requires putting limited campaign resources where they can make the greatest difference.
Democrats need to gain seats across a sprawling 400-member chamber. Steve Marchand’s analysis identifies dozens of Republican-held seats in districts that fall within the most competitive range of his model.
That is why Democrats should pay close attention to Marchand’s Partisan Voting Index model.
Marchand has spent years analyzing voting patterns in New Hampshire House districts to identify potentially competitive seats. His model can help campaigns decide where to spend money, send volunteers and organize canvasses by identifying races most likely to determine control of the chamber.
No model can tell us exactly what will happen in November. Candidates matter. Campaigns matter. Local issues matter. The political environment can change.
But Democrats do not need to win everywhere. They need to win enough of the right races to reach a majority.
With control of the House potentially coming down to a few close districts, Democrats cannot afford to waste scarce resources. They should use every tool available to make those decisions strategically.
If Democrats are serious about taking back the House, Marchand’s PVI model deserves to be part of that strategy.