On Feb. 28, the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran. Within a month, the average New Hampshire family heating with oil had paid $205 more in March than a year earlier, a 31% jump. By May, heating oil prices in New Hampshire had set a record.
That was the warning. Now the next heating season is weeks away, diesel and heating oil prices are climbing again, and Washington is openly debating fuel export restrictions that could leave New England, which gets much of its fuel by sea, worse off than the rest of the country. Granite Staters are entitled to ask a simple question: what did Concord do with seven months of notice?
The administration’s answer, so far, has been a study. In March, Gov. Kelly Ayotte ordered the Department of Energy to produce a roadmap for next-generation nuclear power. The department spent the summer holding stakeholder sessions to meet a preliminary September deadline. Even participants in those sessions were divided on whether nuclear can deliver the promised savings. Whatever the roadmap concludes, no advanced reactor will heat a New Hampshire home this winter or for many winters after. A family in Coös County with a quarter tank of oil needs a delivery it can afford, not a roadmap.
The deeper problem is that the Department of Energy has struggled for years to turn the money it already has into results. The state’s Renewable Energy Fund ended fiscal year 2024 with roughly $20.7 million on hand, after taking in about $8.2 million that year and spending about $2.8 million. This June, the department received seven proposals seeking $2.5 million from that fund and awarded $500,000. When a dedicated fund piles up unspent money, legislators start eyeing it for other purposes, and the program meant to lower energy costs shrinks.
The warning signs have been in the audits too. A Legislative Budget Assistant performance audit found the Weatherization Assistance Program, which exists to cut heating bills for low-income households, was run in 2022 largely by a single full-time manager and lacked required administrative rules and periodic risk assessments. The state’s fiscal 2024 Single Audit flagged a material weakness in how the department managed federal fuel assistance cash, finding four of nine tested draws were late. No money was lost. But fuel assistance is the one program that has to move at the speed of an empty tank.
Not every setback belongs to Concord. Washington canceled the $43.5 million Solar for All award New Hampshire had won, and federal turmoil tangled municipal solar grants. But even there, towns like Lebanon were left waiting for contracts and guidance they needed to decide whether to proceed. A grant announced is not a project built.
Capacity starts at the top. The Governor’s choice to chair the Public Utilities Commission, Christopher Ellms, holds a bachelor’s degree in political science and came up through a gubernatorial campaign and administration. Utility commissioners typically come from law, economics or engineering, and state law allows only one seat to be filled from outside those fields. At his confirmation, a Republican councilor who voted for him raised concerns about his limited experience compared with past chairs, and a Democratic councilor voted no, arguing the job requires a strong legal background.
Energy Commissioner Jared Chicoine came to the job from campaign and gubernatorial policy roles. When he was confirmed in 2021, even a councilor who supported him acknowledged he lacked a technical background. The Governor reappointed him this summer. These are both public servants, but neither brings the engineering, economics or regulatory-law depth that the norms for these roles and past New Hampshire appointees suggest. Put thin leadership on top of thin staffing and the result is predictable: an agency that produces studies more readily than delivery.
The frustrating part is that the department knows how to act. In 2022, when fuel prices spiked after Russia invaded Ukraine, the same commissioner raised fuel assistance benefits ahead of winter, citing dramatic projected increases in heating costs. There has been no comparable public plan this year.
Before the first hard freeze, Ayotte and her Department of Energy should do five things. They should publish a winter fuel emergency plan that says what the state will do if prices spike further or deliveries tighten. They should say plainly whether fuel assistance benefits will rise, as they did in 2022. They should fix the cash-management weaknesses auditors flagged before the heating season begins. They should put the Renewable Energy Fund balance to work on projects that cut heating costs now. And they should commission an independent review of how quickly the department converts available dollars into completed projects.
Going forward, the Governor should fill energy regulatory posts with people whose training matches the stakes. Energy is now one of the largest costs New Hampshire families and employers face. There are easy steps the state can take to reduce these costs.
Oil prices are set a world away, and no governor can control them. What a governor can control is whether her agencies are prepared, staffed and led well enough to protect the people who will pay the price. New Hampshire had seven months of warning. Families heating with oil should not pay twice because Concord was not ready.
Kendra Ford is an organizer for 350NH’s “No Coal No Gas” campaign. She lives in Exeter.