A group called First Street Foundation with help from some Columbia University data scientists has crunched some numbers and says that increased erosion and tidal flooding caused by rising sea levels have trimmed $15.2 million off the value of New Hampshire coastal properties.
Overall, the group estimates that without these problems, coastal properties from Maine to Rhode Island would be worth more than $400 million more than they currently are.
As an example, the report points to a triplex located on Marginal Street in Boston, currently valued at $373,725, would be worth more than double at $799,054 if not for increased tidal flooding due to sea level rise.
“Other models have forecast the future impact of sea level rise flooding on coastal properties, but this is the first to demonstrate value loss that has already occurred. By taking into account characteristics associated with home value, such as square footage and proximity to amenities, and accounting for economic trends like the 2008 housing recession, the scientists were able to isolate the impact that increased frequent tidal flooding caused by sea level rise has had on home value.”
The report does not say that coastal properties are getting cheaper because of climate change. Rather, by comparing sales figures with unaffected properties it estimates that their value would have risen even more if the seas were stable.
“While most of the affected homes did appreciate over the studied period, they did so at a significantly lower rate than comparable homes unaffected by tidal flooding. The research is also the first to find that in addition to direct property-lot flooding, nearby road flooding also has a major impact on home value,” the report says.
The group has created a searchable database at Floodiq.com at which users see their estimate of how much greater the value of select properties would be, if not for climate change.
