It looks like the pandemic has peaked and is starting to wind down – again.
Which means we all have to decide how we want to act – again.
And hope that we won’t be backtracking in nine months – again.
I’m going to be optimistic and say that this time it’s for real. The number of new cases, hospitalizations and deaths have all declined in New Hampshire in the past two weeks, sometimes sharply. The number of people in the hospital with COVID-19, the figure that this column has focused on since last fall, declined by almost one-third in a week and many of those remaining are long-term cases rather than newly arrived patients.
That is not to say that things are good. Hospitalizations are still higher than they were almost all of last year and an average of seven or eight people are dying with COVID-19 every day. Imagine how we’d react if seven people were being killed in auto crashes every day in New Hampshire.
And medical staff of all levels are exhausted beyond measure. The health system, as well as you and I as patients, will be coping with the staffing fallout for many years.
Nonetheless, the pandemic is getting better fast in New England and much of the country and Canada. It’s not unreasonable to think that we have enough vaccines and boosters – a vaccine for under-5-year-olds may be arriving soon – and enough COVID-focused treatments being developed, and enough experience living with the pandemic that when this surge recedes we will truly be out of the woods.
If you don’t agree, I can’t blame you. Some countries are seeing yet another resurgence and with a billion people unvaccinated around the world, it’s still possible that yet another bad variant will evolve. And while vaccines are quite good at preventing severe illness they don’t stop transmission, so the SARS-CoV2 virus will continue to circulate even as the hospitals get emptier.
But darn it, I’m putting on a happy face. Which leads to the question: What now?
I’m still wearing a mask in public places indoors and avoiding crowded places (no sit-down restaurants yet, alas). This month it’s my turn to host my book group, which consists of people in the most vulnerable age group, and I haven’t decided if I dare bring us all into my living room. As for listening to a bad cover band while sipping an overpriced draft in some local bar, that remains a distant dream.
When will I change? I don’t know and neither does anybody else.
People who announce that they’re “over” the pandemic, as if viruses weigh their opinion before deciding whether to latch onto respiratory cells, are of course being ridiculous. But that doesn’t mean we’re stuck forever in the depths of despair.
If COVID-19 becomes endemic on the level of influenza, which seems the likeliest outcome, we will all, individually and as a society, struggle to decide how to react. Judging from the past two years that process will involve far too much whining and name-calling and pointless anger, but otherwise I’m darned if I know how it will wind up.
For coronavirus-related information and updates throughout the week, visit concordmonitor.com/coronavirus.
What’s the trend on the spread and impact of the disease? Not good but getting better.
Two weeks ago there were 411 people in the hospital with COVID-19 and as I write this there are 257, a decline of some 40%.
Two weeks ago some 3,200 new cases were reported by DHHS every day and now the figure is 1,580, a decline of 50%.
Two weeks ago there were 10 people dying every day on average; today the figure is slightly less than 8, a decline of 20%.
All of those numbers are still higher than they were at the start of December, showing that the winter surge is still with us, but the pattern is very good.
(David Brooks can be reached at 369-3313 or dbrooks@cmonitor.com or on Twitter @GraniteGeek.)
