For the past few years, New Hampshire has been bracing itself for a “Silver Tsunami” – when nearly one-third of the population will be above the age of 65.
New numbers from the New Hampshire Office of Energy and Planning say the wave is well on its way. A report released Monday projects the state’s elderly population will balloon over the next few decades while the number of young people continues to decline.
Demographers and public policy experts say state lawmakers are not reacting quickly enough to its aging problem and warn that retirees leaving the workforce will have dire consequences for the state’s economy. Health care providers are also gearing up to take care of more elderly patients.
The segment of the state’s population 65 and older is expected to more than double between 2010 to 2040, going from 178,268 to 408,522. Similarly, the number of New Hampshire people 85 and older will more than triple, going from 24,761 in 2010 to 85,121 in 2040.
Meanwhile, the number of people under age 15 will shrink. That segment of the population is expected to decrease by about 17,000 – going from 232,182 in 2010 to 214,819 in 2040.
State planner Ken Gallager said the study yielded similar results to one his office conducted three years ago.
“It’s really a lot of the same trends,” he said.
Some of those trends are predictable. On one hand, people are living longer, and more baby boomers means more retirees.
Other trends are harder to pin down, like why young people born in New Hampshire are leaving the state and not coming back when it’s time to settle down and raise families of their own.
That’s the trend Vice Chairman of the New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies Eric Herr found surprising as he was conducting his own study on the state’s shifting demographics.
“What was surprising . . . was we are quite disadvantaged in terms of migration,” Herr said.
His report urges New Hampshire lawmakers to pay attention to the issue more closely and work toward attracting more people to the state.
“The remedies all take a long time to work themselves through the system,” Herr said. “If we wait until the signs are critical and visible, by the time we effect change through policy, it will almost be too late.”
Herr’s study argues the state must pin its hopes on population growth and more out-of-state people moving in and filling the job openings created by retirees.
From 1960 to 1990, New Hampshire experienced an in-migration boom, but that has slowed significantly. Herr’s study notes that while net migration is expected to rebound, “the turn of the century slowdown suggests that net migration will not return to the rates enjoyed during the state’s boom years.”
What happens in the future depends on whether New Hampshire is seen as a desirable place to live, which depends on the state’s businesses, tax structure and schools, Herr said.
“What does ‘New Hampshire advantage’ mean when compared to 80 percent of other states, our residents are voting with their feet and leaving?” he said.
Heath care providers say they’re watching the state’s aging trend closely.
“Certainly, I think there’s no question we’re seeing an increased Medicare population for the hospital,” said Betsey Rhynhart, executive director of New Hampshire Accountable Care Partners at Concord Hospital. “You can see it in your numbers, you can see it in the patients walking through your doors.”
Rhynhart works on population health for the region and she says many of the elderly patients she’s working with want to age in place at home.
That means Rhynhart and others are working to increase the number of mobile nurses, medical assistants and others to care for patients.
There are more staffers working to help coordinate services for patients who want home care.
At Concord Regional Visiting Nurse Association, officials are looking at how to schedule shifts in order to best serve the community and trying to anticipate how much they’ll need to adjust staffing levels to serve more patients down the road.
“We’ve had an awareness this has been coming for many, many years,” said Keliane Totten, vice president of community engagement at Concord VNA. “We model staffing around that growth.”
They are also focused on improving the resources for family caregivers, holding community workshops on topics like improving balance and helping family members cope with Alzheimer’s and dementia.
“We really work collaboratively within our system,” Totten said. “It’s very much about the patient’s needs individually.”
(Ella Nilsen can be reached at 369-3322, enilsen@cmonitor.com or on Twitter @ella_nilsen.)