FOXBOROUGH, Mass. – Footballs bounce. They bounce wildly and unpredictably. They sometimes bounce to people they aren’t supposed to bounce to.
And yet, through the last 15 quarters, not one football has bounced into the hands of the New England Patriots defense. The Pats have not forced a turnover since Malcolm Butler picked off Steelers backup quarterback Landry Jones in the first quarter of a Week 7 win over Pittsburgh. Since then, 3.75 games have passed without a takeaway – and now the Patriots are on the verge of setting a dubious franchise record.
At only one other time in franchise history have the Pats gone this long without forcing a turnover. That streak came in 2005 and also began against the Steelers. New England recovered an Antwaan Randle-El fumble in the second quarter of Week 3, and then went without a turnover for a franchise-record 16 consecutive quarters.
If the Jets get through the first half of Sunday’s game without turning it over, the 2016 Pats will have a new franchise record of 17 consecutive quarters without a takeaway. Fortunately for the Patriots, their division rival is currently the third-most turnover prone team in the league with 20 giveaways this season, so there’s a decent chance the 2005 team will keep its mark of futility (although the 49ers had 18 turnovers entering last week’s game and are still the fifth-worst team in that category).
Unlike the 2005 defense, this unit seems to be regressing. The 2005 squad concluded its streak in its seventh game and produced a turnover in all but one game for the rest of the season (and that was a throwaway game in Week 17, when they let Doug Flutie dropkick an extra point). This team started its streak in Week 7, and has produced only nine turnovers all season. Six times this year, the Patriots have failed to produce a turnover. That’s the most turnover-free games in their 57-year history – and there are still six games left.
“It’s a season that is continuously evolving,” Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia said in his Tuesday conference call. “If you look at the teams through the course of the different seasons that have played that have wound up in the end where you want to be, I’m sure those teams have gone through a lot of different things throughout the season.”
The Patriots are going through some of those things right now. They might have more perceived turmoil than any 8-2 team in NFL history. In the wake of the Jamie Collins trade, another player thought to be one of their best – defensive lineman Jabaal Sheard – has fallen out of favor, seeing his snaps drop to 13 against Seattle and then to zero against San Francisco since he didn’t even make the trip. Making things more complicated, defensive tackle Alan Branch, a key cog in the Patriots’ rush defense, has been suspended for four games for using marijuana, pending an appeal.
On the bright side, the defense has only allowed 18.0 points per game, still the third-best total in the league. They also had a season-high five sacks on Sunday after producing only 16 in their first nine games. The question is where will big plays come from as the list of experienced playmakers seems to get smaller every week?
Also, it’s one thing to say that the Patriots aren’t forcing turnovers, but this streak is owed in part to the fact that opponents aren’t giving them turnovers. It’s a historic combination of teams taking care of the football and the Patriots failing to make plays. To some degree, we’re bordering on a statistical anomaly here. Consider that Tuesday was the fourth anniversary of the “butt fumble,” a play where then-Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez ran into his own center’s backside and lost possession of the football. That turnover was as much the result of dumb luck as it was scheme or execution.
Balls bounce. They have not bounced to the Patriots for about a month now.
Moving forward, Sheard may now get a second chance, filling in at tackle if the Branch suspension is upheld. Or maybe Coach Bill Belichick will reach out to his friend Donald Trump and trade Sheard to the president-elect’s transition team. Anything could happen. What’s clear is that the Patriots have work to do, and their coaches have long been known for scheming their way out of personnel problems.
“We’re going to try to play our best football here moving forward with whoever is out there and try to get better no matter what,” Patricia said. “I certainly, me as a coach … always look at myself first and I’ll always try to make sure I’m doing everything I can to help our team prepare to win and do the best job I can week in and week out, which is what I really try to do. From that standpoint, those guys know that. We’re always trying to do whatever it takes to help the team win.”
(Dave Brown is a freelance correspondent who covers the Patriots for the Monitor. You can follow him on Twitter @ThatDaveBrown.)