There won’t be a “closed” sign on the Pleasant Street federal courthouse, the trails will stay open at the Saint-Gaudens National Historic Site in Cornish, the FAA in Nashua will continue helping planes land safely, and everybody’s mail will still be delivered.
In fact, unless Uncle Sam writes your paycheck, New Hampshire will see relatively little effect from the federal government shutdown. At first, that is.
If the shutdown continues, the effects will pile up, as was shown by the 2013 government shutdown, which went on for 17 days. Notably, more than 2,000 people who worked for Portsmouth Naval Shipyard were furloughed that year.
That shutdown eventually cost some $3 billion in direct government expense around the country and, depending on which estimates you follow, $20 billion or more in related economic slowdown. A prolonged shutdown this year would have at least as much economic cost.
In the short run, however, the effect will be hard to see.
That’s partly because New Hampshire has a relatively small federal presence. The federal government has about 4,000 employees in New Hampshire, according to the employment website Monster.com, about half of them working for the Defense Department or the Department of Transportation, which includes the large Federal Aviation Administration facility in Nashua. Other federal employers include Veterans Affairs and TSA.
Most of these, however, are considered essential positions and so will stay on the job for the time being.
So what will happen?
Social Security checks will still go out, although the agency may not be staffed to the level of answering phone calls or doing other administrative tasks – including, for example, helping people who have changed address get their checks.
Medicare and Medicaid are not affected. The Veterans Home in Franklin, as well as Veterans Administration facilities and hospitals, will also not be affected.
The White Mountain National Forest will remain open for snowshoeing and other activities, but the ranger stations and other visitor services are likely to be closed. State parks and state facilities, including Cannon Mountain, are unaffected because they’re not part of the federal government.
Federal courts will stay open because, as detailed in a memo from the director of the administrative office of the U.S. court systems, the judiciary has bankrolled enough money to continue operations for about three weeks. In the 2013 shutdown the federal courts almost closed, producing a huge backlog of cases that took years to work itself out.
A number of state agencies depend on money from federal grants and agencies, but those are usually paid out in occasional grants and so would not be affected unless the shutdown extends for many weeks.
UNH said student financial aid is unlikely to be affected for the same reason. However, said spokeswoman Erika Mantz, “based on past experience, a government shutdown could immediately impact some federal research grants. Bills will not be paid out of current grants and that will result in a loss of income for research faculty and staff who depend on grants for their salary as well as to pay undergraduate and graduate students who assist with their research. In addition, applications for future federal research grants will not be reviewed or awarded.”
Other unexpected effects are likely. One showed up Saturday, when Gibson’s Bookstore canceled an appearance by U.S. Rep. Rosa DeLauro of Connecticut to talk about her book, The Least Among Us. Due to the shutdown, the store said, she was unable to travel.
