Minutes after Republican Matt Mowers easily crushed the competition in the GOP primary in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, the state Democratic Party was already labeling him a “Trump loyalist.”
Similarly, after Bryant ‘Corky’ Messner’s victory in the Republican Senate primary, longtime New Hampshire Democratic Party chair Ray Buckley charged that “Messner has been clinging to Trump since the beginning.”
The question remains whether political support from the president is seen as a badge of honor or a scarlet letter among New Hampshire voters.
The endorsement of President Donald Trump helped spur both Messner and Mowers to victory in their Republican primaries, which could turn out to be a liability in the general election in a crucial battleground state where the president’s approval and favorability ratings are underwater.
An endorsement from Trump is one of the most coveted prizes in Republican primary politics – and it paid dividends again on Tuesday.
Both Messner and Mowers received shoutouts from the president when Trump held a re-election campaign event in New Hampshire a week and a half ago. Messner quickly used the clip of the president praising him in his closing TV commercial in the race. The spot also showcased a clip of Messer speaking earlier at the rally pledging to “help President Trump bring this economy back.”
Mowers, a veteran political operative and strategist who worked on Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign before serving in the State Department during the first two years of the Trump presidency, told supporters in his victory speech that “I want to thank a good friend of all of ours, the President of the United States for his early support in this campaign.”
Veteran New Hampshire based political scientist Wayne Lesperance, vice president of academic affairs at New England College, said the Mowers and Messner campaigns clearly benefited.
“Not only did they have the support of the president, but that financial and organization support came with the exclusion of resources to the other GOP challengers, an unprecedented decision by the president and national party,” Lesperance said
Both Messner and Mowers vastly outspent their rivals – which gave them a massive advantage in running TV commercials, digital and radio ads, and direct mail to primary voters.
Now both candidates go from being the favorites in the GOP primaries to the underdogs in the general election – as Messner takes on popular Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen – a former governor who’s running for a third six-year term in the U.S. Senate – and Mowers challenges first-term Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas. Both Shaheen and Pappas have much larger campaign war chests than their Republican challengers.
The strategy for Democrats has been to frame the contests around the president.
“Last night’s primary results have made it clear: Donald Trump has completely and unconditionally taken over the N.H. GOP,” Buckley said. He described Messner and Mowers “as anointed Trump Republicans” and cheerleaders for the Republican president.
He charged that “Messner and Trump are aligned on decimating the Affordable Care Act.”
He took similar shots at Mowers.
“Mowers’ main so-called-credential is his experience working for Donald Trump and Chris Christie, two corrupt hyper-partisan politicians who have pursued a political agenda at the expense of their own constituents,” Buckley said.
In fact, the same playbook was used on Republican candidates who weren’t endorsed by Trump.
Steve Negron, the 2nd Congressional District Republican congressional nominee, was never endorsed by the president, but Buckley claimed the two-time GOP challenger against Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster is aligned “with Trump’s extreme views.”
New Hampshire GOP chair Steve Stepanek – who was a New Hampshire co-chair of Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign – obviously disagreed with Buckley on whether the president’s endorsement would serve as a liability in the general election.
“The COVID pandemic is going to be in the rearview mirror in a very short period of time and who better to lead this country out of the corona pandemic and rebuild our economy and our jobs than Donald Trump,” Stepanek told the Monitor.
And he predicted that “the Trump endorsement will propel all of the candidates to victory.”
The president remains extremely popular among Granite State Republicans. Nearly nine in ten Republican voters in New Hampshire said they approved of the job Trump was doing as president, according to the most recent Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll. But Trump’s approval nosedived to 35% among undeclared or independent voters and plunged to just 2% among Granite State Democrats.
“Trump’s endorsement put Messner and Mowers over the top with Republican primary voters and the base of the party. That same endorsement may prove toxic in the general election as both candidates face relatively mainstream democrats who are sure to play well with independents and disaffected Republicans,” Lesperance said. “It remains to be seen whether or not touting the president’s endorsement in the primary was a good short term strategy but short-sighted for the general election.”
Stepanek – pointing to a current lack of deep divisions that New Hampshire Republicans faced four years ago – emphasized that “unlike 2016, where we were fighting not only the Democrats but Jennifer Horn and the never-Trumpers in the NHGOP, the NHGOP, Trump Victory, the entire Republican ticket is running as one organization.”
Still, the Republican Senate primary between Messner and his rival – retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc – turned admittedly divisive over the summer.
“I will not support a man who’s being investigated for fraud by the attorney general. NO! I will not support him. I will not disgrace my name to support a man like that,” Bolduc said of Messner as he spoke with TV station WMUR late Tuesday night.
Bolduc planned attend Thursday’s NHGOP unity breakfast, but was still stinging in his comments Wednesday.
“I do have serious concerns about the corruption and disproportionate amount of money and outside interests in this process,” he said taking an apparent parting shot at Messner and the Republican leadership.