A recent New York Times article highlighted a multi-year report by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (COE) examining how to protect New York City, New Jersey and the broader North Atlantic Coast from future extreme weather disasters. The report makes clear that the destruction caused by Superstorm Sandy was not an anomaly, but a warning — one that we have yet to fully heed.
The COE’s findings are sobering. Protecting coastal communities from future hurricanes, storm surge and extreme rainfall will take decades, massive investment and a fundamental rethink of how we design flood control infrastructure. The report is reinforced by personal accounts from residents who survived catastrophic flooding, rebuilt their homes and now face the prospect of repeating that ordeal within just a few years.
What has changed is the planet itself. Scripps Western Weather and Water Extremes Center at UC San Diego’s long term research explains that warming oceans have significantly increased evaporation, leading to the formation of “atmospheric rivers” — vast airborne streams of water vapor that can stretch thousands of miles and contain several times the volume of the Mississippi River. When these systems make landfall, they can release extraordinary large amounts of rain in short periods.
From an engineering standpoint, atmospheric rivers pose a profound challenge. Their volume, landing location, rainfall intensity and duration are all uncertain — precisely the variables engineers must understand to design effective dams, levees, bypass channels and storm surge barriers. In short, we are now designing flood-protection systems in the dark with incomplete and rapidly changing data.
We are no longer living on the Earth we knew for centuries. That planet is gone, likely forever. Continuing to plan infrastructure based on outdated assumptions is both dangerous and costly. To meet this new reality, the United States must act immediately on three fronts.
First, Congress should task the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers with updating national topography, flood maps, and flood-risk zones, much as it did in the 1970s for the Federal Flood Insurance Program. This update must account for expanded impervious surfaces — roads, parking lots and development — which dramatically increase runoff and flooding. The urgency is already evident: insurance companies are canceling or refusing coverage because future risks are too uncertain to price.
Second, the federal government should establish a National Flood and Surge Protection Center under the Corps of Engineers, in partnership with NOAA and FEMA. The mission of this center would be to develop, test and validate new flood and surge protection design standards suited to a warming climate. Its work should incorporate leading research, including findings from institutions such as the Scripps Western Weather and Water Extremes Center at UC San Diego.
Third, the nation needs a coordinated, large-scale flood mitigation and disaster rebuilding program, implemented state by state. We have done this before. The Construction Grants Program under the Clean Water Act and the Superfund program successfully addressed nationwide environmental crises using a clear framework: a national priority list, a lead federal agency, regional offices and coordinated contracting, particularly for construction labor and materials.
In this case, the Corps of Engineers would serve as the lead agency, with regional offices managing local implementation, including marine construction facilities for hurricane-prone areas. The Corps has extensive experience managing large-scale construction — it oversaw much of the Army’s infrastructure during building during World War II — and is uniquely equipped to manage rapid, coordinated rebuilding.
Today, disaster recovery is piecemeal. Homes are repaired one by one, if at all. Meanwhile, floods, hurricanes, and storm surges have likely destroyed tens of thousands of homes, with only a fraction restored. A national program is the only realistic way to rebuild communities within a meaningful timeframe.
Funding would follow established precedent, combining federal, state, and local contributions, along with appropriate insurance payouts. Such a structure would also give insurers a predictable basis for setting premiums and restoring coverage in high-risk areas, including entire cities like New York. Participation would remain voluntary for property owners who choose to rebuild independently.
The Corps of Engineers’ plan for New York and New Jersey offers a blueprint. But the challenge — and the solution — must be national. We are living on a more hostile Earth. The question is whether we adapt deliberately now, or continue reacting too late, disaster by disaster.
Dr. Michael Sills was the Chief Engineer of the New Hampshire Environmental Agency for nearly 30 years. He also served as Chief Engineer for several private environmental engineering Orms during his career. He is a licensed professional engineer and is currently focused on global warming issues facing the planet.