As the number of school-aged children in Concord drops and more families choose educational options outside public school, the Concord School District has seen a long pattern of declining enrollment.

On the backdrop of shrinking elementary school class sizes and a new school choice model in Deerfield that could siphon students from Concord High, the school board will make key decisions about its budget and staffing next week.

The number of students in the Concord School District has declined by 660 in the last 10 years, according to district data, a loss of about 13%. Almost half of those students left during the first two school years of the COVID-19 pandemic. More families have sought alternative education options, like charter schools, homeschooling and private institutions. At the same time, the number of children in Concord continues to decline even as the city itself grows. While the citywide population has risen by almost 2,000 since 2014, according to census estimates, the number of children in the city fell by roughly 10%.

Fewer students does not necessarily mean a proportionate drop in expenses — in older grades, especially, because teachers are more specialized to specific electives. As a result, it takes a sharp decline to be able to reduce staff, school officials say. At the same time, fewer students living in Concord means less per-pupil education funding from the state: next year overall state aid is expected to go down $1.9 million, almost 8%.

Of all the areas in the budget, the school board has the most flexibility on staffing, Superintendent Kathleen Murphy has said throughout the budget process. Salaries and benefits are more than three-quarters of the district’s general fund expenses, which are set to rise about 4.5% and 6.5% this year, respectively.

With Deerfield, revenues would be stabilized by increasing tuition rates if attendance numbers decline as expected.

For the broader student population, the district has reduced staff gradually as teachers retire. Without breaking that trend, the Concord School Board is looking closely at the teacher-student ratio at its elementary schools next year, especially as it weighs more than half a million dollars in requested staff additions.

“We keep on talking about adding and adding and adding,” Board Member Bob Cotton said during a budget workshop. “We haven’t had a cutting conversation.”

New choices in Deerfield

For the last 20 years, Concord and Deerfield school districts have followed an arrangement where the town is required to send at least 90% of its high school students to Concord High and, in exchange, gets a discount on the standard per-student tuition. In local elections last year, Deerfield residents rejected a new contract that would have continued that agreement and instead directed their school board to pursue a school choice model. The Deerfield School Board board followed through, signing three-year tuition agreements with Concord, Pembroke Academy and Coe-Brown Northwood Academy this winter.

During the last decade, the number of Deerfield students at Concord fluctuated between just over 150 to just under 200, with each grade sending about 40-45 students. Next year, under the choice model, 25 have selected Concord High. When Deerfield conducted a survey of its fifth-through-eighth-grade families last year, only 30% said Concord was their preference.

If the previous agreement with the discount had continued, Deerfield would have paid Concord approximately $15,300 per student this coming year. Instead, they will pay approximately $18,600. Because the higher rate will apply to all Deerfield students at Concord High, not just incoming ninth-graders who chose it, tuition revenue to Concord will actually bump up slightly.

This year, Concord budgeted about $2.6 million in tuition revenue for 168 Deerfield students, while next year’s budget expects almost $3 million for 156 students. As classes under the old agreement begin to graduate, and the total number of Deerfield students settles into a new, lower normal, the district will tailor the per-student rate to keep overall tuition revenue relatively steady, according to Business Administrator Jack Dunn. For example, if the total number of Deerfield students at Concord dropped by another 15 in the 2025-2026 school year, and costs rose about 4% as predicted, Dunn estimated the per-student rate for Deerfield would be just over $19,500, which would put total tuition revenue to Concord at roughly $2.7 million.

The new sending agreement with Deerfield expires after three years.

Elementary staffing

The greatest fall in student population — 374 since 2014 — occurred at the city’s elementary schools. Over the last four years, the district has not eliminated any existing teachers, relying on resignations and retirements for reductions, according to Murphy. In the draft budget for next year, that holds true: the number of elementary school teachers would decline by one at Beaver Meadow School as one teacher retires.

Board policy sets maximums and minimums for class sizes in various age ranges. Across the five elementary schools the teacher-student ratio would remain within that policy, with an average of about 17 students per class, a budget report shows.

Against outright cuts, board members are discussing whether to drop two more elementary-level positions, freeing up some funds for the various staff additions they’re considering — a Rundlett school resource officer, world language teachers, math interventionists, and a nurse. Each teacher vacancy that goes unfilled saves about $117,545 in the budget, Dunn said.

Given increased behavioral challenges in classrooms as a result of the pandemic and a higher number of multi-lingual students needing additional support, school board members are wary of pushing the ceilings of their class-size policy, which sets a maximum number of students at 24 for grades 1-3 and 28 students in grades 4-6. If class sizes go above those thresholds, the board will consider adding another teacher.

“We need to make some cuts somewhere. But I have to say I would not want to start with teachers,” school board Vice President Brenda Hastings said. “There’s got to be some other places where we can cut some things as well.”

After public hearings on the budget this week — where most commentary focused on the addition of a school resource officer at the middle school, a nearly $100,000 proposal — the board has one final budget work session Monday at 5:30 where it is expected to discuss key staffing decisions. The board is expected to finalize and vote on the budget Wednesday.