Election estimate tracks with turnout from past primaries
Published: 09-09-2024 1:34 PM |
With contested races at the top of the ballot, voter turnout in Tuesday’s state primary election is expected to exceed 250,000, a number somewhat on par with previous years.
Secretary of State David Scanlan predicted 147,500 Republicans and 103,500 Democrats will cast their ballots Tuesday. With 895,498 registered voters in the state, turnout would be about 28% if the prediction proves accurate.
Scanlan’s estimate matches what New Hampshire has seen in recent years, although not all parties or districts have competitive primaries every time.
■In 2022, 147,501 Republican and 96,275 Democrat ballots were cast.
■In 2020, 147,237 Republican and 155,956 Democrat ballots were cast.
■In 2018, 100,590 Republican and 126,474 Democrat ballots were cast.
■In 2016, 113,556 Republican and 77,193 Democrat ballots were cast.
New Hampshire has a large share of undeclared voters – 336,002 – who haven’t registered in affiliation with a party. As of Sept. 5, Scanlan said, there were 300,672 registered Republicans and 258,824 registered Democrats.
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Voters will chose who goes on the general election to fill several high-profile vacancies on the ballot, including the governor and New Hampshire’s second congressional district. Gov. Chris Sununu, who’s held the corner office since 2017, and Rep. Annie Kuster, who’s served in Washington since 2013, aren’t seeking reelection.
Several races for the Executive Council are contested, too. Both parties have a primary in District 2 to replace Cinde Warmington, who’s running for governor. District 4 has a crowded Republican primary with six candidates in the running, and District 5 has a race between two Democrats.
In the legislature, only a few dozen primaries are contested out of the 400 state representative seats that will be on the ballot statewide in November.
Charlotte Matherly is the statehouse reporter for the Concord Monitor and Monadnock Ledger-Transcript in partnership with Report for America. Follow her on X at @charmatherly, or send her an email at cmatherly@cmonitor.com.