An entire generation has come of age since the last time Missouri raised its cigarette tax, from 13 cents a pack to 17 cents, in 1993.
Today, it’s the lowest tax in the nation. And Missouri is one of just three states – along with North Dakota and California – that has held cigarette taxes flat since the turn of century. In that time, other states have increasingly tapped smokers to fill budget gaps and raise money for services such as health care and education.
That could soon change. Petitions are seeking to put higher cigarette taxes on the fall ballot in all three of those holdout states, as well as Colorado.
Victories by anti-tobacco advocates would add to a surge that has already raised tens of billions of dollars for states while helping drive down the nation’s smoking rate, from about a quarter of adults in 1990 to fewer than 17 percent in the most recent surveys.
From 2000 through 2014, states raised their cigarette taxes nearly 120 times, helping generate more than $85 billion of additional revenue, according to an Associated Press analysis of state-by-state figures compiled by the economic consulting firm Orzechowski and Walker, which is funded by the tobacco industry.
In June, California became only the second state behind Hawaii to raise the legal smoking age from 18 to 21 under a new law that also regulates electronic cigarettes.
Advocates believe the timing is right for people in even the most historically hesitant states to embrace higher tobacco taxes.
“What we’ve seen is momentum, and I think voters are ready to take the next step,” said Mike Roth, a spokesman for the Save Lives California coalition backing the ballot initiative.
Yet even in a society that has increasingly turned against tobacco, the cigarette tax initiatives are no sure thing to pass.
Charlie Hake, a nonsmoker who owns the We B Smokin chain of tobacco shops based in Jefferson City, said he opposes the latest proposals.
“I think that our government needs to live within its means, and any tax increase is just simply unnecessary,” Hake said.
Two separate initiative petitions have been submitted in Missouri – one seeking a 23-cent-a-pack increase, the other a 60-cent hike.
The Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids estimates that every 10 percent increase in cigarette prices leads to a 4 percent decline in cigarette consumption. It said smaller tax increases often have little effect, because the tax is more easily absorbed into the overall price or offset with discounts.
Even with declining sales, states that have raised cigarette taxes have seen an increase in revenue. But in many states, that revenue surge has diminished over time.
Tobacco sellers argue that significant tax hikes ultimately drive customers elsewhere.
If voters approve both initiatives, Missouri’s tax would gradually climb to $1 a pack.
The Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids opposes both measures, asserting they don’t go far enough. It would be better to leave the tax unchanged, spokesman John Schachter said, because doing so would “improve the chances of a significant increase in the future.”